Optimization of Ecological Water Supplement Scheme for Improved Suitable Habitat Area for Rare Migratory Birds in Nature Reserves Using Interval-Parameter Fuzzy Two-Stage Stochastic Programming Model

Abstract

The optimization of ecological water supplement scheme in Momoge National Nature Reserve (MNNR), using an interval-parameter two-stage stochastic programming model (IPTSP), still experiences problems with fuzzy uncertainties and the wide scope of the obtained optimization schemes. These two limitations pose a high risk of system failure causing high decision risk for decision-makers and render it difficult to further undertake optimization schemes respectively. Therefore, an interval-parameter fuzzy two-stage stochastic programming (IPFTSP) model derived from an IPTSP model was constructed to address the random variable, the interval uncertainties and the fuzzy uncertainties in the water management system in the present study, to reduce decision risk and narrow down the scope of the optimization schemes. The constructed IPFTSP model was subsequently applied to the optimization of the ecological water supplement scheme of MNNR under different scenarios, to maximize the recovered habitat area and the carrying capacity for rare migratory water birds. As per the results of the IPFTSP model, the recovered habitat areas for rare migratory birds under low, medium and high flood flow scenarios were (14.06, 17.88) × 103, (14.92, 18.96) × 103 and (15.83, 19.43) × 103 ha, respectively, and the target value was (14.60, 18.47) × 103 ha with a fuzzy membership of (0.01, 0.83). Fuzzy membership reflects the possibility level that the model solutions satisfy the target value and the corresponding decision risk. We further observed that the habitat area recovered by the optimization schemes of the IPFTSP model was significantly increased compared to the recommended scheme, and the increases observed were (5.22%, 33.78%), (11.62%, 41.88%) and (18.44%, 45.39%). In addition, the interval widths of the recovered habitat areas in the IPFTSP model were reduced by 17.15%, 17.98% and 23.86%, in comparison to those from the IPTSP model. It was revealed that the IPFTSP model, besides generating the optimal decision schemes under different scenarios for decision-makers to select and providing decision space to adjust the decision schemes, also shortened the decision range, thereby reducing the decision risk and the difficulty of undertaking decision schemes. In addition, the fuzzy membership obtained from the IPFTSP model, reflecting the relationship among the possibility level, the target value, and the decision risk, assists the decision-makers in planning the ecological water supplement scheme with a preference for target value and decision risk.

Optimal Water Resources Allocation in the Yinma River Basin in Jilin Province, China, Using Fuzzy Programming

“…In order to solve the Yinma River Basin's water resource allocation model based on the IFTSP method, the objective functions f + and f − [63] of the IFTSP model were obtained first and then substituted into the IFTSP model as constraint conditions. Based on the interactive algorithm, the IFTSP model can be transformed into two groups of deterministic submodels [67,68] to solve the upper and lower bounds of the objective function, respectively. Lingo 11 software was used in this study to solve the developed IFTSP model, and the fuzzy membership degree interval was obtained as [0.32, 0.99].…”

Ecological Service Value Tradeoffs: An Ecological Water Replenishment Model for the Jilin Momoge National Nature Reserve, China

“…The model constructed in this paper focuses on economic development. Liao et al (22] focused on restoring the suitable habitat area of rare birds. This paper provides another scheme for decision-makers from the perspective of economic development, which is beneficial for decision-makers to comprehensively consider the actual situation of wetland water supply.…”

“…Carbon sink capacity of ecological functional areas [ 22 ]: where denotes the NSC of the ecological function area for different regions after optimization (t); denotes the NSC capacity of the ecological function area of the lake (t/10 3 hm 2 ); and denotes the NSC in the ecological function area for different regions (t).…”

“…Two model approaches have been used to restore the suitable habitat area for rare bird species by Liao et al [ 21 , 22 ]. However, the constructed model was focused only on the effect of recharge on the migration of water birds while not considering the economic benefits of the reserve and the restoration of the ecological functions of this wetland region.…”

Optimal Allocation of Water Resources and Eco-Compensation Mechanism Model Based on the Interval-Fuzzy Two-Stage Stochastic Programming Method for Tingjiang River

“…This has the advantage of not requiring the collection of a large amount of data for theoretical support [ 23 , 24 , 25 ]. Liao et al [ 26 ] optimized the ecological water refill scheme in the Momoge National Nature Reserve based on the interval-parameter two-stage stochastic programming model (IPTSP) and found that the fuzzy uncertainty that existed in the optimization process could lead to greater decision-making risks. Thus, they introduced the fuzzy optimization method for further optimization.…”