Optimizing Irrigation Deficit of Multipurpose Cascade Reservoirs

Rashid, Muhammad Usman; Latif, Abid; Azmat, Muhammad

doi:10.1007/s11269-017-1897-x

Cited by 22 publications

(20 citation statements)

References 19 publications

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“…Predicting different patterns of the climate cycle is difficult. In addition, the flow of the Upper Indus Basin (UIB) depends on changes in the ablation mass (Rashid et al, 2018;Rao et al, 2018); small changes in the ablation mass may eventually lead to changes in water quality and quantity. The UIB is considered a water tower in the plain (Immerzeel et al, 2010), so the HK mountains are particularly important for extending the proxy network to improve the understanding of different climatic behaviors.…”

Section: Linkage Of Drought Variation With Ocean Oscillationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

A 424-year tree-ring-based Palmer Drought Severity Index reconstruction of <i>Cedrus deodara</i> D. Don from the Hindu Kush range of Pakistan: linkages to ocean oscillations

et al. 2020

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Abstract. The rate of global warming has led to persistent drought. It is considered to be the preliminary factor affecting socioeconomic development under the background of the dynamic forecasting of the water supply and forest ecosystems in West Asia. However, long-term climate records in the semiarid Hindu Kush range are seriously lacking. Therefore, we developed a new tree-ring width chronology of Cedrus deodara spanning the period of 1537–2017. We reconstructed the March–August Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) for the past 424 years, going back to 1593 CE. Our reconstruction featured nine dry periods (1593–1598, 1602–1608, 1631–1645, 1647–1660, 1756–1765, 1785–1800, 1870–1878, 1917–1923, and 1981–1995) and eight wet periods (1663–1675, 1687–1708, 1771–1773, 1806–1814, 1844–1852, 1932–1935, 1965–1969, and 1990–1999). This reconstruction is consistent with other dendroclimatic reconstructions in West Asia, thereby confirming its reliability. The multi-taper method and wavelet analysis revealed drought variability at periodicities of 2.1–2.4, 3.3, 6.0, 16.8, and 34.0–38.0 years. The drought patterns could be linked to the large-scale atmospheric–oceanic variability, such as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation, Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, and solar activity. In terms of current climate conditions, our findings have important implications for developing drought-resistant policies in communities on the fringes of the Hindu Kush mountain range in northern Pakistan.

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Section: Linkage Of Drought Variation With Ocean Oscillationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

A 424-year tree-ring-based Palmer Drought Severity Index reconstruction of <i>Cedrus deodara</i> D. Don from the Hindu Kush range of Pakistan: linkages to ocean oscillations

et al. 2020

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“…Immerzeel et al (2010) stated that more than 50% of the Indus river water is contributed by glacier and snowmelt runoff from HKH, whereas the contribution of summer precipitation is relatively small (Immerzeel et al 2009). The Upper Indus Basin (UIB) is the Indus basin upstream of Tarbela and Mangla reservoirs, and these reservoirs are the primary source of irrigation and hydropower generation for Pakistan (Nie et al 2021;Rashid et al 2018). The intraannual variations in stream ow of the UIB are primarily caused by ablation and seasonal snowfall (Forsythe et al 2017).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Changes in monthly streamflow in the Hindukush–Karakoram–Himalaya Region of Pakistan using innovative polygon trend analysis

Ahmed

Wang

Booij

et al. 2021

Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess

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The present study explored the changes in monthly stream ow in the Hindukush-Karakoram-Himalaya (HKH) region within Pakistan using the recently developed trend analysis method known as Innovative Polygon Trend Analysis (IPTA). The monthly stream ow data of 34 gauging stations installed in the HKH region was analyzed, and the Pettitt test was applied to check the homogeneity of the time series. The entire study area was divided into 13 sub-basins, and then changes in monthly stream ow of each subbasin were explored using the IPTA method. The stream ow of high elevated glaciated and snow/icecovered sub-basins (e.g., Shyok, Astore, and Chitral) have increased in high ow months (June-August), where there is a downward trend for the Hunza sub-basin in these months. In the Gilgit sub-basin, a transition occurred from no trend in May to a decreasing trend from June to August. The upstream gauges of Swat and Kabul sub-basins showed an increasing trend throughout the year, while downstream gauging stations in the same sub-basins exhibited a strong decreasing trend only in high ow months (June-August). The upper reaches of the Indus part in the Upper Indus Basin (UIB) showed increasing trends in high ow months (June-August), however the downstream gauges of UIB showed decreasing trends throughout the year. Overall, only the glaciated and snow/ice-covered sub-basins experienced increasing trends, while most other sub-basins faced decreasing trends in high ow months and increasing trends in low ow months (October -March). The enhancement of the seasonal pattern of stream ow in the upper reaches of UIB is possibly due to the melting of snow and ice that potentially in uence oods and hydropower generation. The results of this study can result in a better understanding of the hydrology of the HKH region and support sustainable water management.

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“…The Indus River Basin is typically divided into two sections, the Upper Indus Basin (UIB) and Lower Indus Basin. The UIB refers to the section of the river above the Tarbela reservoir, an important source of water for Pakistan's irrigation network and hydropower potential (Rashid et al, ), and located on the main Indus before its confluence with other major tributaries (Archer, ). The headwaters of the UIB originate in the upper reaches of the Karakoram and Himalaya ranges.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Six Centuries of Upper Indus Basin Streamflow Variability and Its Climatic Drivers

Rao

Cook

et al. 2018

Water Resources Research

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Our understanding of the full range of natural variability in streamflow, including how modern flow compares to the past, is poorly understood for the Upper Indus Basin because of short instrumental gauge records. To help address this challenge, we use Hierarchical Bayesian Regression with partial pooling to develop six centuries long (1394–2008 CE) streamflow reconstructions at three Upper Indus Basin gauges (Doyian, Gilgit, and Kachora), concurrently demonstrating that Hierarchical Bayesian Regression can be used to reconstruct short records with interspersed missing data. At one gauge (Partab Bridge), with a longer instrumental record (47 years), we develop reconstructions using both Bayesian regression and the more conventionally used principal components regression. The reconstructions produced by principal components regression and Bayesian regression at Partab Bridge are nearly identical and yield comparable reconstruction skill statistics, highlighting that the resulting tree ring reconstruction of streamflow is not dependent on the choice of statistical method. Reconstructions at all four reconstructions indicate that flow levels in the 1990s were higher than mean flow for the past six centuries. While streamflow appears most sensitive to accumulated winter (January–March) precipitation and summer (May–September) temperature, with warm summers contributing to high flow through increased melt of snow and glaciers, shifts in winter precipitation and summer temperatures cannot explain the anomalously high flow during the 1990s. Regardless, the sensitivity of streamflow to summer temperatures suggests that projected warming may increase streamflow in coming decades, though long‐term water risk will additionally depend on changes in snowfall and glacial mass balance.

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Optimizing Irrigation Deficit of Multipurpose Cascade Reservoirs

Cited by 22 publications

References 19 publications

A 424-year tree-ring-based Palmer Drought Severity Index reconstruction of <i>Cedrus deodara</i> D. Don from the Hindu Kush range of Pakistan: linkages to ocean oscillations

A 424-year tree-ring-based Palmer Drought Severity Index reconstruction of <i>Cedrus deodara</i> D. Don from the Hindu Kush range of Pakistan: linkages to ocean oscillations

Changes in monthly streamflow in the Hindukush–Karakoram–Himalaya Region of Pakistan using innovative polygon trend analysis

Six Centuries of Upper Indus Basin Streamflow Variability and Its Climatic Drivers

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Optimizing Irrigation Deficit of Multipurpose Cascade Reservoirs

Cited by 22 publications

References 19 publications

A 424-year tree-ring-based Palmer Drought Severity Index reconstruction of &lt;i&gt;Cedrus deodara&lt;/i&gt; D. Don from the Hindu Kush range of Pakistan: linkages to ocean oscillations

A 424-year tree-ring-based Palmer Drought Severity Index reconstruction of &lt;i&gt;Cedrus deodara&lt;/i&gt; D. Don from the Hindu Kush range of Pakistan: linkages to ocean oscillations

Changes in monthly streamflow in the Hindukush–Karakoram–Himalaya Region of Pakistan using innovative polygon trend analysis

Six Centuries of Upper Indus Basin Streamflow Variability and Its Climatic Drivers

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A 424-year tree-ring-based Palmer Drought Severity Index reconstruction of <i>Cedrus deodara</i> D. Don from the Hindu Kush range of Pakistan: linkages to ocean oscillations

A 424-year tree-ring-based Palmer Drought Severity Index reconstruction of <i>Cedrus deodara</i> D. Don from the Hindu Kush range of Pakistan: linkages to ocean oscillations