Optimizing the Chinese Electricity Mix for CO₂ Emission Reduction: An Input–Output Linear Programming Model with Endogenous Capital

Abstract

This study develops an input–output linear programming (IO-LP) model to identify a cost-effective strategy to reduce the economy-wide carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in China from 2020 to 2050 through a shift in the electricity generation mix. In particular, the fixed capital formation of electricity technologies (FCFE) is endogenized so that the capital-related CO2 emissions of various generation technologies can be captured in the model. The modeling results show that low-carbon electricity, e.g., hydro, nuclear, wind, and solar, is associated with lower operation-related CO2 emissions but higher capital-related CO2 emissions compared to coal-fired electricity. A scenario analysis further reveals that a shift in the electricity generation mix could reduce the accumulated economy-wide CO2 emissions in China by 20% compared to the business-as-usual (BAU) level and could help peak China’s CO2 emissions by 2030. The emission reduction is mainly due to a drop in operation-related CO2 emissions of electricity, contributing to a decrease in accumulated economy-wide emissions by 21.4%. The infrastructure expansion of electricity, on the other hand, causes a rise in the accumulated emissions by 1.4%. The proposed model serves as an effective tool to identify the optimal technology choice in the electricity system with the consideration of both direct and indirect CO2 emissions in the economy.

Quantifying the synergy and trade-offs among economy–energy–environment–social targets: A perspective of industrial restructuring

“…For example, one study demonstrated that in 2030, the installed capacity of renewable energy would account for 70% of the total capacity under the PEAK20 and PEAK25 scenarios (Zhang and Chen, 2022). Overall, however, the proportion of electricity generated from renewable sources in this study will be higher than that projected by other long-term studies, e.g., studies by (Kang et al, 2020b;Yang et al, 2021b). The main reasons for this difference may be as follows.…”

Chinese electricity-focused input-output dataset with detailed coal power and alternative energy for 2018

“…Deep decarbonisation of the electricity sector would be far-reaching in achieving China’s climate targets 6 , 7 , energy efficiency 8 , 9 , environmental benefit 10 , 11 , and socio-economic welfare 12 , 13 . To analyse the energy-environment-economy impacts of electricity transition, the electricity-focused input-output (EFIO) model is one of the most used top-down methods for tracing industrial linkage effects 14 – 17 .…”

“…Therefore, alternative methodologies starting from symmetric IOTs are widely used and developed in the Chinese context. In this regard, researchers usually disaggregate the original electricity sector following Wolsky’s approach 25 when the power generation and electricity prices of new subsectors are partially available 14 , 26 , 27 . Lindner et al .…”

“…We also made a general comparison with relevant studies that referred to Wolsky’s approach 8 , 14 , 15 , 28 , 45 , in which the output share of T&D in the original sector was 10% lower than that of electricity production in China (almost 45% versus 55%). However, this proportion for disaggregation in China was not realistic, because the output (or sales revenue) of T&D ought to be larger than that of electricity production.…”

Accelerating Fluid Development on a Chip for Renewable Energy

“…The urgency to reduce CO 2 emissions and mitigate climate change is top-of-mind worldwide. − In addition to finding efficiencies in legacy energy systems, there is a growing need for new renewable energy capacity, as well as an emerging question: How can microfluidics be applied to advance renewable energy? , For example, enhanced geothermal energy recovery is a new application area, well suited to benefit from microfluidic tools. Specifically, the latest geothermal methods confine a working fluid in a closed loop to reduce the operational risk and lever powerful thermosiphon pumping .…”