Optometric supply and demand in Australia: 2011–2036

Abstract

Background: The effective size of the optometric workforce is dependent on graduate numbers, retention rates and immigration and is influenced by age, gender and working hours of optometrists. This paper presents modelling results of the relationship between the projected Australian optometric workforce and projected demand for optometric services for the period 2011 to 2036. Nine hypothetical optometric supply-side and demand-side scenarios are presented. Methods: Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics on age and gender of people listing optometry as their major qualification in the 2011 census were projected over a 25-year period, accounting for factors such as concordance with Health Workforce Australia figures for registered optometrists in Australia in 2011, ageing, attrition, hours worked, new graduates and immigration. Data were compared to the numbers of optometrists calculated as necessary to meet the demand for services of the Australian population to 2036 using nine different scenarios. Results: It was estimated that there would be a surplus of over 1,200 equivalent full-time optometrists (EFTO) in 2036 for the highest service demand scenario of 13.8 million Medicare services, where 21 hours of a 38-hour week per EFTO were allowed for the provision of optometric services under Medicare. Substantial surpluses were predicted in all states and territories except Queensland, Tasmania and the Northern Territory where predicted supply was within six EFTO of predicted demand. Conclusions: Projections using current weightings for mortality, attrition, proportion of optometrists in active practice, working hours, immigration, new graduates and 21 hours per EFTO per week available for Medicare services indicate that in 2036, there will be excess optometrists in relation to projected demand for services, if service utilisation is maintained at current levels or increased by 10 or 20 per cent. Substantially greater excesses result if each EFTO has 28 or 35 hours per week available for Medicare services.

Comparing health workforce forecasting approaches for healthcare planning: The case for ophthalmologists

“…The first three are traditional approaches commonly used, [10,[16][17][18][19][20][21] while the latter is an approach proposed by the authors. A thorough comparison and evaluation are important because each approach introduces unique assumptions which have implications for the reliability of the forecast within the context of its application.…”

Planning for the health workforce is essential

“…The contribution of Healy, Kiely and Arunachalam to these discussions is important. The paper provides projections for optometric supply and demand in Australia to 2036.…”

“…The study of Healy, Kiely and Arunachalam suggests that currently, we have a balance between supply and demand in optometric services nationally. Their study indicates, though, that without change to key determining factors, there is likely to be a substantial excess supply of full‐time equivalent optometrists in coming decades.…”

“…Understanding current and expected future demand for optometric services and the professional workforce's capacity to meet them are of fundamental importance to population eye health and to the future of the optometric profession. This issue of Clinical and Experimental Optometry includes a paper detailing the latest optometric supply and demand projections by authors Healy, Kiely and Arunachalam …”

“…It is the latest addition to a long history of studies of the optometric workforce undertaken or commissioned by Optometry Australia and an important contribution to the workforce debate that highlights the need to rethink the policy contexts informing optometric supply and demand in Australia. Healy, Kiely and Arunachalam's study provides an important wake‐up call that we need change to avoid an ever‐increasing supply and demand imbalance. As a first step, considered discussion between key stakeholders, including our profession, the university sector and governments is required.…”