Origin, Persistence, and Vulnerability to Climate Changes of Podocarpus Populations in Central African Mountains

Abstract

Background and objectives—Podocarpus latifolius (synonym of P. milanjianus) is a key tree representative of Afromontane forests where it is highly threatened by climate and land-use changes. While large populations occur in East Africa, only a few isolated and usually small populations remain in western Central Africa (Cameroon to Angola). Studying the evolutionary history of such relictual populations can thus be relevant to understand their resilience under changing environments. Materials and Methods—we developed nine polymorphic nuclear microsatellites (nSSRs) to estimate genetic variability, (historical) gene flow, and demographic changes among natural populations from Central to East Africa. Results—despite the extended distribution range of P. latifolius, a strong isolation-by-distance pattern emerges at the intra-population scale, indicating low seed and pollen dispersal capacities. Central African populations display a lower genetic diversity (He = 0.34 to 0.61) and are more differentiated from each other (FST = 0.28) than are East African populations (He = 0.65 to 0.71; FST = 0.10), suggesting high genetic drift in the Central African populations. Spatial genetic structure reveals past connections between East and West Africa but also a gene flow barrier across the equator in western Central Africa. Demographic modelling anchors the history of current lineages in the Pleistocene and supports a strong demographic decline in most western populations during the last glacial period. By contrast, no signature of demographic change was detected in East African populations. Conclusions—in Cameroon, our results exclude a recent (re)colonization from one source population of all mountain ranges, but rather indicate long-term persistence of populations in each mountain with fluctuating sizes. A higher impact of genetic drift and further loss of diversity can be expected by survival through climatically unfavorable periods in such small refugial populations. Tracking the Quaternary legacy of podocarp populations is thus essential for their conservation since there is a temporal gap between environment crises and an ecological/genetic answer at the population level.

Projecting Podocarpaceae response to climate change: we are not out of the woods yet

“…During the mid-Cretaceous, podocarps went extinct in West Africa during the flattening of the uplands, reduced in geographic extent in India during the late Cretaceous when India drifted northwards ( Morley 2000 ), and subsequently dispersed into its current Southeast Asian distribution following global cooling. In Africa, global cooling may have enabled the dispersal of podocarps from East Africa to the highlands of West Africa through northern and southern pathways ( Migliore et al 2022 ). Presently, podocarps have a largely pantropical distribution.…”

“…Climate change and angiosperm competition have been some of the most important factors influencing podocarp distribution and persistence ( Quiroga and Premoli 2007 ; Migliore et al 2022 ). Podocarps appeared to respond to these threats through persistence in refugia ( Quiroga et al 2018 ; Tesfamariam et al 2022 ).…”

Projecting Podocarpaceae response to climate change: we are not out of the woods yet

“…Climate change and competition with angiosperms have been some of the most important factors that influence podocarp distribution and persistence (Quiroga and Premoli 2007;Migliore et al 2022). Podocarps appeared to respond to these threats through either dispersal into favourable climate conditions or subsequent adaptation to less favourable conditions but may have also used both means to evade potential threats.…”