Outlook on EU and Croatian poultry meat market - Partial equilibrium model approach

Kranjac, David; Zmaić, Krunoslav; Crnčan, Ana; Zrakić, Magdalena

doi:10.1017/s0043933918000910

Cited by 7 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 8 publications

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“…Similar impacts can also be confirmed by our own research, especially within Croatian livestock markets, which are generally uncompetitive [32,36,37,61]. The simulated results indicate that any further reduction in direct support (especially VCS) without changes in technology and investment in farms could cause a significant production drop, especially in beef and dairy.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 82%

“…The total output of the agricultural sector has grown since accession (Figure 1), mainly as a result of growth in the volume of crop production, while livestock production has stagnated or recorded negative results, depending on the observed sector. There have been particularly strong negative production trends found in the main livestock sectors, especially in the beef, dairy and pig sectors [34,[36][37][38][39].…”

Section: Croatian Agricultural Production and Policy Before And After Cap Harmonizationmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Production and Trade Impacts of CAP Post 2022 Reform on Main Croatian Crop and Livestock Markets—Partial Equilibrium Modelling Approach

et al. 2021

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The Latest Common Agricultural Policy reform intends to expand and strengthen environmental and social support and to liberalise the delivery model carried out through strategic planning. This paper aims to assess the potential impacts of the new CAP reform on the main agricultural markets in Croatia. The impact assessment is analysed using the AGMEMOD model where, in addition to the baseline scenario, three scenarios of potential changes are developed and compared to the baseline. Changes in market patterns (production, yield and net trade) at the end of the simulated period are compared with the baseline scenario results by 2030. The reduction in support levels to production, abolishment of voluntary coupled supports and introduction of additional environmental constraints have a significant impact on the main Croatian agricultural markets. Crop markets prov to be less dependent on subsidies, so that market pattern changes will not mean the loss of Croatia’s net export status for soft wheat, maize and soy beans, while barley no longer holds this status. Livestock sectors, especially beef and dairy, in addition to demonstrating a distinct lack of competitiveness even before the Croatian accession to the EU, additionally suffer significant production volume losses along with an increase in imports. Although significant, changes to the Croatian agricultural market are not dramatic enough to cause a complete production breakdown by 2030.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 82%

Section: Croatian Agricultural Production and Policy Before And After Cap Harmonizationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Production and Trade Impacts of CAP Post 2022 Reform on Main Croatian Crop and Livestock Markets—Partial Equilibrium Modelling Approach

et al. 2021

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“…In the same period, approximately 12.8 million tons of unprocessed chicken meat and 2.2 million tons of processed chicken meat were imported, and 7.2% of total chicken importing were run by Japan, 5.8% by Mexico, 5.7% by China, 4.8% by Hong Kong, 4.3% by Saudi Arabia, and 4.3% by Germany (FAO, 2021). Some of the reasons for the high competitiveness of chicken meat include production costs, use of technology, nutritional trends, and faster capital turnover compared to other livestock sectors (KRANJAC, 2019).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Estimating Chicken Meat Productions of Leader Countries for 2019-2025 Years

Uzundumlu

Dilli

2023

Cienc. Rural

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The study predicted chicken meat production in 2019-2025 period for the leading chicken-producing countries with the help of the 1961-2018 Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) data since chicken meat consumption is so high worldwide. The USA ranks the first place while Brazil and China take second and third places, respectively. The analysis of the pioneer chicken meat-producing countries indicates that while the portion of the USA in world production decreases, the share, particularly Brazil and China, will approach that of the USA. World chicken meat production, which was 7.56 million tons in 1961, will increase to 139.19 million tons in 2025, and this production per capita is predicted to increase to 17.0 kg in 2025 from 2.4, 5.35, 9.80, and 15.0 kg in 1961, 1981, 2001, and 2018, respectively. Indonesia, Russia, Brazil, Japan, and India will run the highest increases in production. However, the share of countries in chicken meat production will decrease from 61% to 60% in 2019-2025 compared to the 2012-2018 periods. This condition showed that apart from some leading countries, the production will keep a rapid increase in production. The increase in chicken meat production and chicken meat import worldwide will improve human nutrition, especially in developing and underdeveloped countries. Countries that run cost advantages and high-quality life standards in line with technological innovations produce processed chicken products, strengthen animal health, hygiene, and transportation standards, and attach importance to advertising activities that increase consumer demand will be more advantageous in this market.

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“…Furthermore, medium-term model simulations of key agricultural product markets are an established practice of the European Commission and the scientific community. Such simulations provide impact assessments of existing agricultural policy measures on key agricultural markets (EC, 2020; Kranjac et al, 2019;Salamon et al, 2019;Chantreuil et al, 2013;Erjavec et al, 2006).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Croatian medium-term soft wheat market outlook

Kranjac¹,

Zmaić²,

Sudarić³

2021

J AGR SCI BELGRADE

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With Croatia?s accession to the European Union (EU), numerous changes have taken place within the key agricultural markets. This primarily relates to the introduction of Common Agricultural Policy measures and instruments, the convergence of domestic agri-food product prices, the opening of the domestic market and the producer?s adjustment to the business conditions within the EU single market. Sophisticated tools such as partial equilibrium (PE) econometric models are commonly used in the impact assessments of the integration processes and for the development of medium-term market outlook simulations. The aim of this research is to develop a medium-term outlook of the soft wheat market in the Republic of Croatia up to 2030. As an appropriate tool, the AGMEMOD (PE) model was used to provide baseline simulations. The model results simulate future trends of main agrarian policy indicators (sown area, production, yield, import, export and average producer price) on the soft wheat market. The Croatian soft wheat market outlook assumes ceteris paribus market conditions with the existing agricultural policy structure until the end of the simulated period. The main findings of the simulated outlook indicate a slight growth trend of sown areas, continued growth of yield and production, along with soft wheat exports increase in Croatia by 2030 compared to 2018. Furthermore, the soft wheat degree of self-sufficiency in Croatia is expected to be 114% by the end of the simulated period.

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Outlook on EU and Croatian poultry meat market - Partial equilibrium model approach

Cited by 7 publications

References 8 publications

Production and Trade Impacts of CAP Post 2022 Reform on Main Croatian Crop and Livestock Markets—Partial Equilibrium Modelling Approach

Production and Trade Impacts of CAP Post 2022 Reform on Main Croatian Crop and Livestock Markets—Partial Equilibrium Modelling Approach

Estimating Chicken Meat Productions of Leader Countries for 2019-2025 Years

Croatian medium-term soft wheat market outlook

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