Overall trends in the migration processes in the Republic of Moldova: the mills of the God grinding slowly?

Abstract

This paper discusses the key characteristics of the migration situation and overall trends in the migration processes in the Republic of Moldova. Practically, many of the former Soviet republics were faced with serious social and economic problems. Economical systems of new post-soviet countries were ill-equipped to handle new borders and customs barriers. As the “multi-national state” was dissolved, the majority of new post-Soviet states struggled with ethnic conflicts, which triggered the first wave of the so-called “great escape” of the population. In Moldova’s case, the Transnistrian conflict was a classic example of such a civilizational crisis, the solution to which was not found to date. The first wave of the “great escape” was triggered by the hard situation of the national identity formation. The “second wave” was a reaction to an increasingly poor economic situation. Today, the formation of the “third wave of great escape” becomes increasingly more evident – perhaps the last one for the Moldavian state. This “third wave” is also connected with integrational processes, mostly in the European Union countries. The second part of the article analyses the relationship between the economic development of the Republic of Moldova and the current migration situation. In general, despite a number of positive changes, such as the reduction of the critical high level of dependence of the economy on financial remittances of Moldovan migrant workers, the level of such dependence remains very high, and the speed of development of the Moldovan economy, on the contrary, is significantly reduced. The paper concludes with four main factors that, in the author’s opinion, are critical for the analysis of the current negative migration situation in the Republic of Moldova, as well as those that may become key factors that will have a significant impact on the strengthening of the negative socio-economic situation in the country and the systemic crisis in the future 2035–2040.