Overcoming the rare species modelling paradox: A novel hierarchical framework applied to an Iberian endemic plant

Lomba, Ângela; Pellissier, Loïc; Randin, Christophe F.; Vicente, Joana R.; Moreira, Francisco; Honrado, João P.; Guisan, Antoine

doi:10.1016/j.biocon.2010.07.007

Cited by 211 publications

(249 citation statements)

References 49 publications

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“…The ESMs approach is based on the development of all the possible bivariate models (only two predictors at a time out of a larger set of predictors), followed by their combination into an ensemble (Lomba et al 2010, Breiner et al 2015. ESMs were developed with seven widely used modelling techniques (see Appendix S.1).…”

Section: Ensemble Of Small Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…On one hand, the predictive accuracy of SDMs decreases considerably when rare species are considered in the models, as few species' occurrences and many predictor variables lead to model overfitting and thus reduced generalisation and applicability of the models (Lomba et al 2010, Breiner et al 2015. On the other hand, empirical knowledge about the factors facilitating (or hindering) individuals from moving across landscapes is often limited (Graf et al 2007) and thus resistance surfaces are often derived from expert opinions.…”

Section: Ensemble Of Small Models and Landscape Connectivitymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…However, their predictive accuracy decreases drastically due to model overfitting when species with limited occurrences (such as rare species) and multiple predictor variables are considered in the models (Lomba et al 2010, Breiner et al 2015. This problem has recently been overcome by a new set of models called "Ensemble of Small Models" (ESMs), which are able to limit model-overfitting for rare species and provide more accurate predictions compared to standard SDMs (Breiner et al 2015).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Patterns of distribution and landscape connectivity of the stag beetle in a human-dominated landscape

Rocca¹,

Bogliani²,

Milanesi³

2017

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Urbanisation and the spread of agriculture have resulted in high levels of forest loss, habitat fragmentation and degradation in many regions of the world. In Italy, the Po Plain is the most human-dominated landscape of the country and, after decades of exploitation, old-growth forests have been reduced to small and isolated patches, often threatened by invasive tree species such as the black locust (Robinia pseudoacacia). In these habitats, the occurrence of many forest-dependent species is related to the quality and availability of suitable areas, as well as the connectivity between the remaining forested patches.Thus, recently developed species distribution models have been applied, namely the Ensemble of Small Models (ESMs), to identify areas of occurrence for a rare and protected saproxylic beetle species, the stag beetle Lucanus cervus and the inverse of the resulting distribution maps as resistance maps have been used to estimate landscape connectivity for this species.Response curves suggested that the probability of the stag beetle occurrence increased with habitat diversity, grassland coverage and native forests, especially oak and mixed forests. The other forest coverage, such as those with black locust, beech, chestnut and black cherry, showed a unimodal relationship peaking approximately at 70%, 8%, 55% and 13% respectively. The stag beetle occurrence was unimodal related to distance to watercourses and distance to human settlements and negatively related to shrub-lands, croplands, sparse and dense human settlements. Landscape connectivity showed similar patterns, except for oak forest coverage, which showed a negative relationship to landscape connectivity.In conclusion, stag beetles can persist in a human dominated landscape only in the presence of forest patches, including those with black locust trees. It is also inferred that ESMs may be suitable for modelling rare species distributions and estimating landscape connectivity to promote species conservation.

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Section: Ensemble Of Small Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Ensemble Of Small Models and Landscape Connectivitymentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Patterns of distribution and landscape connectivity of the stag beetle in a human-dominated landscape

Rocca¹,

Bogliani²,

Milanesi³

2017

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“…Rare taxa constitute one of the key targets of conservation actions as they often exhibit high extinction risks associated to their small population sizes and restricted geographic ranges (Fontaine & al., 2007;Lomba & al., 2010). The persistence of rare plants has been related to population traits that frame their adaptive abilities, renewal capacities and responses to environmental shifts (Shipley & al., 2006;Albert & al., 2010).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The assessment of such traits is thus essential for evaluating the condition and dynamics of rare plant populations, and also of the plant communities of which they are part of (Shipley & al., 2006;Violle & al., 2007). The persistence of rare plants has also been related to changes in the habitats in which they occur (Fontaine & al., 2007;Lomba & al., 2010). From a conservation perspective, effective planning and monitoring should consider not only the factors directly affecting the structure of rare plant populations, but also the determinants of their habitats (Broennimann & al., 2005;Regnery & al., 2013).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluating population and community structure against climate and land-use determinants to improve the conservation of the rare <em>Narcissus pseudonarcissus</em> subsp. <em>nobilis</em>

Vaz

Silva

Alves

et al. 2016

Anal. Jard. Bot. Madr.

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Vaz, A.S., Silva, D., Alves, P., Vicente, J.R., Caldas, F.B., Honrado, J.P. & Lomba, A. 2016. Evaluating population and community structure against climate and land-use determinants to improve the conservation of the rare Narcissus pseudonarcissus subsp. nobilis. Anales Jard. Bot. Madrid 73(1): e027.Climate and land-use changes are among the most relevant determinants of future persistence of rare plant species in rural landscapes. We analysed the structure of populations of a rare plant, Narcissus pseudonarcissus subsp. nobilis, and of their respective plant communities against several environmental variables (climate-, topography-, land-use-, and soil-related) in order to identify the pressures that may directly or indirectly affect the persistence of the rare species. Overall, local land-use was the primary determinant of traits related to population renewal and community composition. Specifically, traditional farmlands supported higher community diversity and population individuals. Though moderate land-use intensification seemed to benefit plant community diversity, land abandonment could allow the persistence of N. pseudonarcissus subsp. nobilis populations. Also, a relevant influence of regional environment was perceived on species richness as well as on traits related to population condition, highlighting climate change as a potential determinant of the future persistence of the species. This study highlights the importance of considering key population traits as well as of community structure to accomplish conservation goals by accounting with the factors driving changes in the habitats in which rare species occur, from climate change to land-use and landscape management.Keywords: Endangered species, Iberian Peninsula, land-use, population traits, rural landscapes ResumenVaz, A.S., Silva, D., Alves, P., Vicente, J.R., Caldas, F.B., Honrado, J.P. & Lomba, A. 2016. Evaluando la estructura de la población y de la comunidad frente al clima y el uso del suelo para mejorar la conservación de una especie rara, Narcissus pseudonarcissus subsp. nobilis. Anales Jard. Bot. Madrid 73(1): e027.Las alteraciones del clima y del uso del suelo están entre los factores más relevantes para la persistencia de las especies raras de plantas en paisajes rurales. Este trabajo evalúa la estructura de las poblaciones de una especie rara, Narcissus pseudonarcissus subsp. nobilis, así como de las comunidades de plantas en las cuales se incluyen, frente a variables ambientales (relacionadas con el clima, la topografía, el uso del suelo, y las propiedades del suelo), para identificar las presiones que puedan directa o indirectamente afectar a la especie. En general, el uso local del suelo fue el principal determinante de las características de las poblaciones relacionadas con la capacidad de renovación de esta subespecie, así como de la composición específica de las comunidades. Específicamente, la intensificación media de uso del suelo parece beneficiosa para la diversidad de las comunidades de plantas, pero el abandono agr...

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An assessment of methods to combine evolutionary history and conservation: A case study in the Brazilian campo rupestre

Pizzardo,

Nic Lughadha,

Rando

et al. 2024

Appl Plant Sci

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PremiseConservation policies typically focus on biodiversity hotspots. An alternative approach involves analyzing the evolutionary history of lineages in geographic areas along with their threat levels to guide conservation efforts. Mountains exhibit high levels of plant species richness and micro‐endemism, and biogeographic studies commonly point to recent and rapid evolutionary radiations in these areas. Using a nearly endemic clade of legumes, our study evaluates conservation prioritization approaches in the campo rupestre, a Neotropical ecosystem associated with mountaintops that is located between two biodiversity hotspots.MethodsWe compared the EDGE and EDGE2 metrics, which combine the evolutionary distinctiveness and the extinction risk of a species in a single value. These metrics are compared with traditional metrics used to assess conservation priority, such as phylogenetic diversity.ResultsThe EDGE values reported are lower than those of other studies using this metric, mostly due to the prevalence of threatened species with short phylogenetic branch lengths (low values of evolutionary distinctiveness). Certain areas of campo rupestre with relatively high phylogenetic diversity and EDGE values do not correspond to areas with high species richness, agreeing with previous studies on biodiversity hotspots.DiscussionOur study highlights the necessity of conservation of the campo rupestres as well as advantages and disadvantages of using EDGE, EDGE2, and phylogenetic diversity for appropriate selection of conservation areas with rapid evolutionary radiations. The selection of the metrics will depend primarily on the life history of the focus group and the data availability, as well as the conservation approach.

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Overcoming the rare species modelling paradox: A novel hierarchical framework applied to an Iberian endemic plant

Cited by 211 publications

References 49 publications

Patterns of distribution and landscape connectivity of the stag beetle in a human-dominated landscape

Patterns of distribution and landscape connectivity of the stag beetle in a human-dominated landscape

Evaluating population and community structure against climate and land-use determinants to improve the conservation of the rare <em>Narcissus pseudonarcissus</em> subsp. <em>nobilis</em>

An assessment of methods to combine evolutionary history and conservation: A case study in the Brazilian campo rupestre

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