Overconfidence produces underachievement: Inaccurate self evaluations undermine students’ learning and retention

Dunlosky, John; Rawson, Katherine A.

doi:10.1016/j.learninstruc.2011.08.003

Cited by 502 publications

(365 citation statements)

References 42 publications

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“…We concluded that the declined group might have been more apt to misjudge their self-regulated learning before using the EGN. Other studies suggested that there are correlations between overconfidence in judgment and GPA (Hadwin & Webster, 2012), and also between judgment accuracy of metacognition and levels of retention (Dunlosky & Rawson, 2012).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 96%

Self-Regulated Learning Strategies of Engineering College Students While Learning Electric Circuit Concepts with Enhanced Guided Notes

Lawanto¹,

Santoso²

2013

IES

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The current study evaluated engineering college students' self-regulated learning (SRL) strategies while learning electric circuit concepts using enhanced guided notes (EGN). Our goal was to describe how students exercise SRL strategies and how their grade performance changes after using EGN. Two research questions guided the study: (1) To what degree students' grade performance change after using the EGN?; and (2) To what degree students' SRL profiles change after using the EGN? The subjects for this study were 97 engineering students enrolled in the Fundamental Electronics for Engineers course at a university in Utah. A survey instrument developed using Butler and Cartier's SRL model was used to capture SRL strategies with a focus on the sixth feature which includes including planning, monitoring, and regulating. Regular examinations and the DC/AC conceptual inventory were used to assess grade performance. Descriptive statistics, independent and paired t-tests, and a cluster analysis technique were used to analyze survey data. A phenomenological data analysis was used to analyze interview transcripts to support findings from questionnaire data. The findings revealed an improvement on students' grade performance. Data analysis of the SRL survey revealed that students' had different SRL profiles. Students in the improved group reported a greater awareness of planning, monitoring, and regulating strategies. On the other hand, those in the declined group showed a lower awareness of the SRL strategies at the end of semester. In addition, emergent themes related to students' SRL and learning experience while using the EGN were found. This article will also discuss the potential implications for electric circuit concepts instructions.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 96%

Self-Regulated Learning Strategies of Engineering College Students While Learning Electric Circuit Concepts with Enhanced Guided Notes

Lawanto¹,

Santoso²

2013

IES

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“…That is, the easier or more fluently information is processed on a perceptual level, the more confident students are that the information is understood and can be recalled -even though this is not the case (e.g., Kornell et al 2011;Yue et al 2013). This is referred to as overconfidence (Koriat et al 1980) -a metacognitive bias that can be detrimental to self-regulated learning (e.g., Dunlosky and Rawson 2012). Accordingly, disfluency effects can be explained, in that high fluency leads to overconfidence and System 1 processing, resulting in less mental effort and premature study termination.…”

Section: Disfluency Theory and Metacognitionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Effects of disfluency on cognitive and metacognitive processes and outcomes

Kühl

Eitel

2016

Metacognition Learning

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“…The few longitudinal studies suffer from sporadic sampling and relatively few judgments (Ben-David et al 2013, Dunlosky and Rawson 2012, Simon and Houghton 2003. In the current study, we examine probabilistic forecasts of important events over a period of three years.…”

Section: Effects Over Timementioning

confidence: 99%

Confidence Calibration in a Multi-year Geopolitical Forecasting Competition

Swift

Minster²,

Mellers³

et al. 2016

Preprint

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This research examines the development of confidence and accuracy over time in the context of forecasting. Although overconfidence has been studied in many contexts, little research examines its progression over long periods of time or in consequential policy domains. This study employs a unique data set from a geopolitical forecasting tournament spanning three years in which thousands of forecasters predicted the outcomes of hundreds of events. We sought to apply insights from research to structure the questions, interactions, and elicitations to improve forecasts. Indeed, forecasters’ confidence roughly matched their accuracy. As information came in, accuracy increased. Confidence increased at approximately the same rate as accuracy, and good calibration persisted. Nevertheless, there was evidence of a small amount of overconfidence (3%), especially on the most confident forecasts. Training helped reduce overconfidence and team collaboration improved forecast accuracy. Together, teams and training reduced overconfidence to 1%. Our results provide reason for tempered optimism regarding confidence calibration and its development over time in consequential field contexts.

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Overconfidence produces underachievement: Inaccurate self evaluations undermine students’ learning and retention

Cited by 502 publications

References 42 publications

Self-Regulated Learning Strategies of Engineering College Students While Learning Electric Circuit Concepts with Enhanced Guided Notes

Self-Regulated Learning Strategies of Engineering College Students While Learning Electric Circuit Concepts with Enhanced Guided Notes

Effects of disfluency on cognitive and metacognitive processes and outcomes

Confidence Calibration in a Multi-year Geopolitical Forecasting Competition

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