Pacific decadal oscillation and variability of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall

Krishnan, R.; Sugi, Masato

doi:10.1007/s00382-003-0330-8

Cited by 255 publications

(192 citation statements)

References 40 publications

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“…[3] The cause of such a weakening has been attributed to a broad range of phenomena: From changes in the atmospheric fields due to global warming [Krishna Kumar et al, 1999], to natural low-frequency atmospheric variability [Krishnamurthy and Goswami, 2000;Gershunov et al, 2001]; From changes in the atmospheric circulation in the North Pacific and in the Eurasian snow cover [Chang et al, 2001], to variability of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation [Krishnan and Sugi, 2003]; From changes in the ENSO characteristics [Annamalai and Liu, 2005;Krishna Kumar et al, 2006] to the co-occurrence of ENSO and the Indian Ocean Zonal Mode (IOZM) [Saji et al, 1999;Webster et al, 1999]. Finally, a recent study by Kucharski et al [2007] (hereinafter referred to as K2007) found that tropical Atlantic SST modulate the ENSO-Indian monsoon relationship and reproduced observed trends in the IMR time series during the 1950 -1999 period with a suite of ensemble experiments.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Atlantic forced component of the Indian monsoon interannual variability

Kucharski

Bracco

Yoo

et al. 2008

Geophysical Research Letters

201

157

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[1] The Indian monsoon interannual variability is modulated by the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), with a drier than normal monsoon season usually preceding peak El Niño conditions, and vice versa for La Niña phase. Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies, however, are not the only player. Building upon our recent discovery that atmospheric teleconnections between the tropical Atlantic and the Indian basin contributed to the weakening of the ENSO-monsoon anticorrelation during the '80s and '90s, we investigate the role of south equatorial Atlantic SSTs in forcing the Indian monsoon rainfall (IMR). Using two observational data sets and two ensembles of simulations we show that the residual in the IMR time series for observed and modeled data, obtained by subtracting the ENSO-forced component of the IMR that is linearly related to the NINO34 index, is significantly correlated with south equatorial Atlantic SSTs. Our results have important implications for seasonal forecast efforts.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Atlantic forced component of the Indian monsoon interannual variability

Kucharski

Bracco

Yoo

et al. 2008

Geophysical Research Letters

201

157

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“…A variety of other investigators (McCabe & Dettinger 1999, Gutzler et al 2002 have confirmed that the phase of the PDO has significant impact on the precipitation patterns produced by the ENSO climate signal. In the case of India, Krishnan & Sugi (2003) found that over the period 1871−2002 a warm (cool) phase of the PDO was related to a decrease (increase) in an 'all India summer monsoon rainfall' index based on 306 stations. Their results confirmed suggestions by others that the PDO would amplify regional climate signals related to ENSO.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Influence of El Niño/southern oscillation, Pacific decadal oscillation, and local sea-surface temperature anomalies on peak season monsoon precipitation in India

Roy¹,

Goodrich²,

Balling³

2003

Clim. Res.

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Many modeling and empirical studies have revealed that summer monsoon precipitation in India is significantly affected by El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) as well as by seasurface temperatures (SSTs) in the Arabian Sea, Bay of Bengal, and Indian Ocean. Recently, the impact of the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) on Indian rainfall has been the focus of research. In this investigation, we collect monthly rainfall data for 18 grid cells covering India and develop statistical indices of ENSO, PDO, and local SSTs over the period . We find that ENSO reduces precipitation in southern India while having a small impact over most of the country. The PDO appears to amplify the ENSO signal in southern India, while local SSTs were directly related to monsoon precipitation totals in the southern peninsula region. While the associations are often statistically significant, the combination of ENSO, PDO, and SSTs explains less than 20% of the variance in monsoon rainfall throughout India.

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“…The PDO has a warm and cold phase with a teleconnection pattern in the Northern Hemisphere that is similar to corresponding warm and cold phases of ENSO . The PDO has a known influence on the ISM, such that the warm phase of the PDO is associated with a weakened ISM, as a consequence of a similar dynamical mechanism associated with a weakened ISM during warm ENSO events (Krishnan and Sugi, 2003). The PDO can mitigate or exacerbate the strength of ENSO teleconnections such that warm (cold) ENSO events coincident with warm (cold) phases of the PDO have enhanced teleconnection patterns, whereas warm (cold) ENSO events during cold (warm) PDO periods have a diminished influence on the Northern Hemisphere ENSO teleconnections .…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

On the low-frequency component of the ENSO–Indian monsoon relationship: a paired proxy perspective

et al. 2014

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Abstract. There are a number of clear examples in the instrumental period where positive El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events were coincident with a severely weakened Indian summer monsoon (ISM). ENSO's influence on ISM precipitation has therefore remained the centerpiece of various predictive schemes of ISM rainfall for over a century. The teleconnection between ISM precipitation and ENSO has undergone a protracted weakening since the late 1980s, suggesting the strength of ENSO's influence on ISM precipitation may vary on multidecadal timescales. The recent weakening has occurred despite the fact that the ENSO system has experienced variance levels during the latter part of the 20th century that are as high as any period in the past millennium. The recent change in the ENSO-ISM coupling has prompted questions as to whether this shift represents a natural mode of climate variability or a fundamental change in ENSO and/or ISM dynamics due to anthropogenic warming or aerosol impacts on the ISM. Here we place the 20th century ENSO-ISM relationship in a millennial context by assessing the phase relationship between the two systems across the time spectrum using a a series of high-resolution reconstructions of ENSO and the ISM from tree rings, speleothems and corals. The results from all the proxies suggest that in the high-frequency domain (5-15 yr), warm (cool) sea surface temperatures in the eastern tropical Pacific lead to a weakened (strengthened) monsoon. This finding is consistent with the observed relationship between the two systems during the instrumental period. However, in the multidecadal domain (30-90 yr) the phasing between the systems is reversed such that periods of strong monsoons were, in general, coincident with periods of enhanced ENSO variability. This result is counterintuitive to the expectation that enhanced ENSO variance favors an asymmetric increase in the frequency of El Niño events and therefore a weakened monsoon system. The finding implies that the prominent multidecadal variability that characterizes the last 1000 yr of the ISM is not likely attributable to multidecadal shifts in ENSO. If there is a continued trend towards enhanced ENSO variance in the coming decades, the results presented here do not suggest this will force a reduction in ISM precipitation.

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Pacific decadal oscillation and variability of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall

Cited by 255 publications

References 40 publications

Atlantic forced component of the Indian monsoon interannual variability

Atlantic forced component of the Indian monsoon interannual variability

Influence of El Niño/southern oscillation, Pacific decadal oscillation, and local sea-surface temperature anomalies on peak season monsoon precipitation in India

On the low-frequency component of the ENSO–Indian monsoon relationship: a paired proxy perspective

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