Paleoseismic and Postseismic Observations of Surface Slip along the Parkfield Segment of the San Andreas Fault

Toké, Nathan A.; Arrowsmith, J Ramón; Young, J. J.; Crosby, C. J.

doi:10.1785/0120050809

Cited by 15 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 44 publications

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“…This suggestion had been tested as null‐hypothesis by Kagan [1997] and Jackson and Kagan [2006], who could not reject the simple model for characteristic time‐recurrent hypotheses. The Parkfield mainshocks apparently do not require a substantial tectonic re‐loading, explaining the variation of more than a factor of three between individual inter‐event intervals observed over the last 150 years, and a paleoseismologically deduced range of inter‐event times between 8–188 years [ Toke et al , 2006]. Recurrence models that are based on tectonic loading cycles as driving force seem not to be applicable in the Parkfield setting.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This can explain why time‐recurrent models fail at Parkfield: if the asperity always has enough energy stored to rupture in another moderate earthquake, the cyclic loading‐unloading model underlying the time‐ and slip predictable models is inapplicable. Based on different aseismic and co‐seismic displacement models, the current slip deficit in Parkfield since 1857, which might be released in the next large Cholame‐segment earthquake, has been estimated to range from 1–2 m [ Toke et al , 2006]. This deficit is even without further loading the equivalent of the cumulative slip of 3–5 more M6 earthquakes in the asperity.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Earthquake recurrence models fail when earthquakes fail to reset the stress field

Tormann¹,

Wiemer²,

Hardebeck³

2012

Geophysical Research Letters

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[1] Parkfield's regularly occurring M6 mainshocks, about every 25 years, have over two decades stoked seismologists' hopes to successfully predict an earthquake of significant size. However, with the longest known inter-event time of 38 years, the latest M6 in the series (28 Sep 2004) did not conform to any of the applied forecast models, questioning once more the predictability of earthquakes in general. Our study investigates the spatial pattern of b-values along the Parkfield segment through the seismic cycle and documents a stably stressed structure. The forecasted rate of M6 earthquakes based on Parkfield's microseismicity b-values corresponds well to observed rates. We interpret the observed b-value stability in terms of the evolution of the stress field in that area: the M6 Parkfield earthquakes do not fully unload the stress on the fault, explaining why time recurrent models fail. We present the 1989 M6.9 Loma Prieta earthquake as counter example, which did release a significant portion of the stress along its fault segment and yields a substantial change in b-values. Citation: Tormann, T., S. Wiemer, and J. L. Hardebeck (2012), Earthquake recurrence models fail when earthquakes fail to reset the stress field, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L18310,

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Earthquake recurrence models fail when earthquakes fail to reset the stress field

Tormann¹,

Wiemer²,

Hardebeck³

2012

Geophysical Research Letters

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“…Our future work will be directed toward understanding the effect of fault damage zone evolution through multiple seismic cycles. Paleoseismic studies of large strike‐slip earthquakes, limited to the past 1,000–1,200 yr, suggest that the recurrence of large events is nonuniform, possibly even chaotic, with large gap in seismic activity followed by multiple seismic episodes (Grant & Sieh, 1992; Fumal et al., 2002; Seitz et al., 1997; Toké et al., 2006). A time‐dependent stressing history, possibly driven by the evolution of the fault damage zone through multiple seismic episodes and aseismic creep, may better explain the observed nonniform recurrence intervals along mature faults.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Effects of Low‐Velocity Fault Damage Zones on Long‐Term Earthquake Behaviors on Mature Strike‐Slip Faults

2020

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Mature strike‐slip faults are usually surrounded by a narrow zone of damaged rocks characterized by low seismic wave velocities. Observations of earthquakes along such faults indicate that seismicity is highly concentrated within this fault damage zone. However, the long‐term influence of the fault damage zone on complete earthquake cycles, that is, years to centuries, is not well understood. We simulate aseismic slip and dynamic earthquake rupture on a vertical strike‐slip fault surrounded by a fault damage zone for a thousand‐year timescale using fault zone material properties and geometries motivated by observations along major strike‐slip faults. The fault damage zone is approximated asan elastic layer with lower shear wave velocity than the surrounding rock. We find that dynamic wave reflections, whose characteristics are strongly dependent on the width and the rigidity contrast of the fault damage zone, have a prominent effect on the stressing history of the fault. The presence of elastic damage can partially explain the variability in the earthquake sizes and hypocenter locations along a single fault, which vary with fault damage zone depth, width and rigidity contrast from the host rock. The depth extent of the fault damage zone has a pronounced effect on the earthquake hypocenter locations, and shallower fault damage zones favor shallower hypocenters with a bimodal distribution of seismicity along depth. Our findings also suggest significant effects on the hypocenter distribution when the fault damage zone penetrates to the nucleation sites of earthquakes, likely being influenced by both lithological (material) and rheological (frictional) boundaries.

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“…Our future work will be directed towards understanding the effect of fault damage zone evolution through multiple seismic cycles. Paleoseismic studies of large strike-slip earthquakes, limited to the past 1000-1200 years, suggest that the recurrence of large events is non-uniform, possibly even chaotic, with large gap in seismic activity followed by multiple seismic episodes (Grant & Sieh, 1992;Seitz et al, 1997;Fumal et al, 2002;Toké et al, the numerical procedure for implementing the Algebraic Multigrid for quasi-static solver.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Effect of fault damage zones on long-term earthquake behavior on mature strike-slip faults

Thakur¹,

Huang²,

Kaneko³

2020

Preprint

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Mature strike-slip faults are usually surrounded by a narrow zone of damaged rocks characterized by low seismic wave velocities. Observations of earthquakes along such faults indicate that seismicity is highly concentrated within this fault damage zone. However, the long-term influence of the fault damage zone on complete earthquake cycles, i.e., years to centuries, is not well understood. We simulate aseismic slip and dynamic earthquake rupture on a vertical strike-slip fault surrounded by a fault damage zone for a thousand-year timescale using observations along major strike-slip faults, e.g., San Andreas Fault, as constraints on fault zone material properties and geometry. We find that dynamic wave reflections, whose characteristics are strongly dependent on the width and the rigidity contrast of the fault damage zone, have a prominent effect on the stressing history of the fault. The presence of elastic damage can explain, in part, the variability in the earthquake sizes and hypocenter locations along a single fault, which vary with fault damage zone depth, width and rigidity contrast from the host rock. The depth extent of the fault damage zone has a pronounced effect on the earthquake hypocenter locations, and shallower fault damage zones favor shallower hypocenters with a possible bimodal distribution of seismicity along depth. Our findings also suggest significant fault damage zone effects on the hypocenter distribution when the fault damage zone penetrates to the nucleation sites of earthquakes. Therefore the depth distribution of seismicity in mature strike-slip faults is likely influenced by both lithological (material) and rheological (frictional) boundaries.

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Paleoseismic and Postseismic Observations of Surface Slip along the Parkfield Segment of the San Andreas Fault

Cited by 15 publications

References 44 publications

Earthquake recurrence models fail when earthquakes fail to reset the stress field

Earthquake recurrence models fail when earthquakes fail to reset the stress field

Effects of Low‐Velocity Fault Damage Zones on Long‐Term Earthquake Behaviors on Mature Strike‐Slip Faults

Effect of fault damage zones on long-term earthquake behavior on mature strike-slip faults

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