Participatory Development and Analysis of a Fuzzy Cognitive Map of the Establishment of a Bio-Based Economy in the Humber Region

Abstract

Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping (FCM) is a widely used participatory modelling methodology in which stakeholders collaboratively develop a ‘cognitive map’ (a weighted, directed graph), representing the perceived causal structure of their system. This can be directly transformed by a workshop facilitator into simple mathematical models to be interrogated by participants by the end of the session. Such simple models provide thinking tools which can be used for discussion and exploration of complex issues, as well as sense checking the implications of suggested causal links. They increase stakeholder motivation and understanding of whole systems approaches, but cannot be separated from an intersubjective participatory context. Standard FCM methodologies make simplifying assumptions, which may strongly influence results, presenting particular challenges and opportunities. We report on a participatory process, involving local companies and organisations, focussing on the development of a bio-based economy in the Humber region. The initial cognitive map generated consisted of factors considered key for the development of the regional bio-based economy and their directional, weighted, causal interconnections. A verification and scenario generation procedure, to check the structure of the map and suggest modifications, was carried out with a second session. Participants agreed on updates to the original map and described two alternate potential causal structures. In a novel analysis all map structures were tested using two standard methodologies usually used independently: linear and sigmoidal FCMs, demonstrating some significantly different results alongside some broad similarities. We suggest a development of FCM methodology involving a sensitivity analysis with different mappings and discuss the use of this technique in the context of our case study. Using the results and analysis of our process, we discuss the limitations and benefits of the FCM methodology in this case and in general. We conclude by proposing an extended FCM methodology, including multiple functional mappings within one participant-constructed graph.

Comparing the effects of mutualism and competition on industrial districts

“…However this initial study suugests that the effect of nontrade dynamics on industrial districts may be profound. We now intend to revisit the case study of the Humber region [51,1,42] to develop a more empirically based method for identifying and analysing the mutualistic and competitive non-trade interactions that are fundamental in that industrial district, in order to gain insight into what the future might hold as the system transitions to a bio-based economy. One intriguing possibility is that analysis may suggest mutualistic relationships that could be initiated to speed up (or slow down) such a transition.…”

“…For example the Humber region in the UK is a large, active and diverse industrial area on the Humber estuary. The area is centred on the combined ports of Grimsby and Immingham, which together form the UK's largest bulk port by tonnage and part of one of the largest and busiest port complexes in Europe, see [1] and references therein. The region is a net energy exporter, with a large number of fossil-fuel based power stations.…”

A Participatory Approach for Adapting River Basins to Climate Change

“…We constructed the FCMs on the basis of statements by stakeholders expressed during Stakeholder workshop I and the subsequent interviews, and then discussed the FCMs during workshops and interviews with (expert) stakeholders who could propose modifications. FCMs can, however, be constructed with different levels of stakeholder involvement, ranging from desk research [37], interviews [21] to workshops [38,40,51]. While we did not develop the FCMs in a workshop setting, we believe that such a setting could enhance the involvement of the stakeholders and enable them to better understand the role of the maps in our analyses.…”

“…The models converged generally within 30 iterations. For Pedieos, a non-linear model was developed; a sigmoid (logistic) function (see e.g., [40]) was used to normalize all factors before each multiplication. This was done to prevent oscillations caused by the multiplication of negative relations with negative values and resulted in a physically expected behavior of the map.…”

Europe: the paradox of landscape change : A case-study based contribution to the understanding of landscape transitions

“…to analyse the dynamics of deforestation processes (Kok 2009) in relation to securing livelihoods (Diniz et al 2015), understanding the development of a biobased economy (Penn et al 2013), and the development of participatory environmental plans and resettlement of people (Özesmi and Özesmi 2004). The theoretical foundations of FCM have been dealt with in detail in other publications (Jetter and Kok 2014;Kok 2009;Penn et al 2013;Soler et al 2011).…”