Participatory land use modelling, pathways to an integrated approach

Hewitt, Richard J.; Delden, Hedwig van; Escobar, Francisco

doi:10.1016/j.envsoft.2013.10.019

Cited by 113 publications

(69 citation statements)

References 31 publications

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“…LULC and ecosystem service scenarios are imperative for land managers to visualise alternative uses of land in order to optimise management practices and improve planning (Alcamo, Kok, Busch & Priess, 2008). LULC change mapping has been widely used when modelling future scenarios using a variety of techniques (Verburg & Overmars, 2009;Rounsevell et al, 2006;Hewitt, van Delden & Escobar, 2014;Van SchrojensteinLantman, Verburg, Bregt & Geertman, 2011), but only recently BBNs have been used for this purpose (Celio, Koellner & Grêt-Regamey, 2014). QUICKScan has proved to be a useful tool for doing so in a direct and straight-forward way.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Understanding Land Use, Land Cover and Woodland-Based Ecosystem Services Change, Mabalane, Mozambique

Mahamane¹,

Zorrilla-Miras²,

Verweij³

et al. 2017

EER

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Charcoal production constitutes a key ecosystem service in Mozambique, with an estimated market value of US$400 million a year. Due to the central role the charcoal industry plays in local livelihoods, availability of suitable wood for charcoal production has decreased because of changes in land use and land cover (LULC). This paper applied a probabilistic modelling approach combining Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs), Geographic Information Systems, Remote Sensing data, field data, and expertise from different stakeholders to understand how changes in LULC affect woodland-based ecosystem services (ES) in the Mabalane landscape, southern Mozambique. Three scenarios of policy interventions were tested: Large private; Small holder and Balanced. A BBNs was used to explore the influence of these scenarios from 2014 to 2035 on the resulting LULC. This research facilitated stakeholder engagement and improved the understanding of the interaction between LULC changes and woodland-based ES. The results highlighted the importance and spatial distribution of woodland-based ES to the local communities and that availability of suitable wood for ES will decrease under the first scenario.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Understanding Land Use, Land Cover and Woodland-Based Ecosystem Services Change, Mabalane, Mozambique

Mahamane¹,

Zorrilla-Miras²,

Verweij³

et al. 2017

EER

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“…Research using scenarios and software tools together with participatory activities have become popular instruments in a large number of studies [47][48][49][50][51][52][53]. Beside different future possibilities, which can be illustrated and compared by using our imagination, intuition and creativity [54], modelling support and stakeholders input are frequently used to mirror realistic issues and give an answer to what we could do if the scenario assumptions will occur.…”

Section: Scenariosmentioning

confidence: 99%

Regional Development Scenario Evaluation through Land Use Modelling and Opportunity Mapping

Shahumyan

Williams

Petrov

et al. 2014

Land

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Abstract:In the context of sustainable urban development, the application of selected indicators integrated with scenario simulation and analysis can contribute to evidence-based decision making. This paper discusses the application of land use modelling and opportunity mapping approaches to evaluate regional development scenarios for the Greater Dublin Region in the period to 2026 evolving from research initially developed with the Dublin Regional Authority. This involved the simulation of four different future regional development scenarios using an adapted version of the MOLAND model with opportunity maps based on combined spatial indicators corresponding to these scenarios. The results produce valuable information for policy makers and planners assisting the evaluation of the consequences of their decisions in both a spatial and temporal context. This paper aims to show how current and future planning and economic policy can make targeted and evidence-based policy interventions and achieve resource efficiencies through the use of scenario analysis.

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“…Each scenario can be assessed based on indicators that are calculated from a raster format of the used data [60]. The calibration and verification stages require two separate time-horizons of land use changes [64]. In the research the CORINE Land Cover (CLC) data for three different years [65].…”

Section: Cellular Automata Modellingmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Use of a Decision Support System for Sustainable Urbanization and Thermal Comfort in Adaptation to Climate Change Actions—The Case of the Wrocław Larger Urban Zone (Poland)

Kazak

2018

Sustainability

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Abstract:The increasing level of antropopression has a negative impact on environmental resources and has reached the level of our planetary boundaries. One limitation is land use change caused by urbanization. Global policies prove the need to undertake action in order to develop more sustainable human settlements, which would be adapted better to potential future climate change effects. Among such changes are the increase of average temperatures and extreme events like heat waves. Those changes are more severe in urban areas due to land use development, and result in the urban heat island effect (UHI), which has a negative impact on the thermal comfort of citizens. The paper presents a decision support system that can be used for the assessment of areas to the potential exposure to the UHI effect. The system integrates scenario analysis, land use modelling in cellular automata (Metronamica), and an indicator-based assessment in a geographic information system (ArcGIS). The applicability of the model is illustrated through developing scenarios for the future land use allocation of the Wrocław Larger Urban Zone (Poland). The results of the calculations show which scenario is the least vulnerable to UHI effects. Moreover, for each scenario, cores of urban areas were identified, in which certain urban design patterns accounting for adaptation to climate change could be implemented. The study provides a guideline for local authorities on where to focus actions in order to create more sustainable urban structures and to better adapt to climate change and environmental extremes.

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Participatory land use modelling, pathways to an integrated approach

Cited by 113 publications

References 31 publications

Understanding Land Use, Land Cover and Woodland-Based Ecosystem Services Change, Mabalane, Mozambique

Understanding Land Use, Land Cover and Woodland-Based Ecosystem Services Change, Mabalane, Mozambique

Regional Development Scenario Evaluation through Land Use Modelling and Opportunity Mapping

The Use of a Decision Support System for Sustainable Urbanization and Thermal Comfort in Adaptation to Climate Change Actions—The Case of the Wrocław Larger Urban Zone (Poland)

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