Peculiarities of Using the Method of Expert Assessments for Analysis of Combat Capabilities of Unmanned Aerial Systems

Abstract

Along with the intentions of most countries to increase their military-strategic importance, robotic systems have become especially relevant as the latest innovative high-tech direction – relatively cheap unmanned platforms of various bases (aviation, ground, sea) with strike alone or reconnaissance and strike elements.
 The article presents a method of assessing the combat capabilities of unmanned aerial systems by groups of generalized indicators using the method of expert assessments.
 The proposed method takes into account the consistency of experts' opinions by applying the concordance coefficient and allows moving from qualitative to quantitative assessment of the combat capabilities of unmanned aerial systems.
 It is established that the assessment of the degree of agreement of experts' opinions is not less important for the scientific substantiation of the forecast by expert methods. It is emphasized that the assessment of the degree of consistency of experts' opinions should be carried out using the concordance coefficient, the statistical significance of which, in turn, if necessary, can be verified by the criterion of Pearson. To implement the process of assessing the competence of experts, it is advisable to use universal statistical analysis programs.
 On the basis of the theoretical provisions presented in research, the algorithm of processing of results of experts’questioning is made. Finally, the directions of further research on the development of scientifically substantiated recommendations for the practical use of the method of expert assessments for the analysis of combat capabilities of unmanned aerial systems by groups of generalized indicators are formulated.