Performance and profit sensitivity to risk: a practical evaluation of the agro-industrial projects developed by Israeli companies for the CIS and Eastern European countries

Abstract

International companies take part in many tenders for agro-industrial projects in the Commonwealth of Independent States and Eastern European countries. The market for these projects is analyzed and found to be favorable for companies and developers. Major projects developed in recent years are presented and evaluated in terms of financial performance. Additionally, a method of project evaluation by profit sensitivity to risk criterion is proposed. In this method, the approximate formula for profit sensitivity to risk (when basic production and market assumptions change simultaneously) is derived using a cost-volume-profit model. This method allows minimal calculations to explain profit sensitivity and elasticity within the usual indicators of business planning: operational profitability and degree of operating leverage. The consistency of project ranking is examined using Cronbach's alpha and correlation coefficients. The ranks obtained by various performance criteria are found to be consistent with each other, but not with those obtained by profit sensitivity to risk. In terms of elasticity, project profitability is a much stronger influence than the degree of operating leverage on profit sensitivity to risk. BackgroundMany Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) and Eastern European (EE) countries have enjoyed a period of rapid economic growth since the beginning of 2000's, except for the 2008-2010 period of financial crisis. During 2000-10, investment in fixed assets in CIS countries increased by 150 percent in terms of real prices, in Romania by 122% and in Bulgaria by 66%. In comparison, fixed asset investment in EU-27 countries averaged an 18% increase over the same period.