Planning and response in the aftermath of a large crisis: An agent-based informatics framework

Abstract

We present a synthetic information and modeling environment that can allow policy makers to study various counter-factual experiments in the event of a large human-initiated crisis. The specific scenario we consider is a ground detonation caused by an improvised nuclear device in a large urban region. In contrast to earlier work in this area that focuses largely on the prompt effects on human health and injury, we focus on co-evolution of individual and collective behavior and its interaction with the differentially damaged infrastructure. This allows us to study short term secondary and tertiary effects. The present environment is suitable for studying the dynamical outcomes over a two week period after the initial blast. A novel computing and data processing architecture is described; the architecture allows us to represent multiple co-evolving infrastructures and social networks at a highly resolved temporal, spatial, and individual scale. The representation allows us to study the emergent behavior of individuals as well as specific strategies to reduce casualties and injuries that exploit the spatial and temporal nature of the secondary and tertiary effects. A number of important conclusions are obtained using the modeling environment. For example, the studies decisively show that deploying ad hoc communication networks to reach individuals in the affected area is likely to have a significant impact on the overall casualties and injuries.

Prescriptive Analytics Using Synthetic Information

“…Details of the computational architecture can be found in (Barrett et al, 2013). We present results from a four-cell experiment design, as shown in Table 3.…”

“…Our main examples will be from transportation and communication. In Section 3 we will put this into context when we consider a case study involving human behavior and interaction with infrastructures in the case of a small nuclear detonation in a large urban area (Barrett et al, 2013;Chandan et al, 2013;Parikh et al, 2013;Lewis et al, 2013).…”

Using Paired Agent-Based Simulations To Test Strategies For Limiting The Effects Of Epidemics

“…Going further afield, these methods have been used to simulate infectious diseases in the immune system [42], biomolecular networks [43], myxobacterial development [44] and dosimetry in a virtual hepatic lobule [45]. Disaster preparedness policies and interventions in the event of a large human-initiated crisis such as a nuclear strike in an urban area have also been studied [46], [47].…”

A comparison of multiple behavior models in a simulation of the aftermath of an improvised nuclear detonation

“…The design of the simulation has been described in detail elsewhere [7]. We summarize it here for completeness.…”