Point Estimate Schemes to Solve the Probabilistic Power Flow

Morales, Juan M.; Pérez-Ruiz, Juan

doi:10.1109/tpwrs.2007.907515

Cited by 639 publications

(386 citation statements)

References 24 publications

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“…The proposed approach is summarised in the flow chart presented in Fig. 2 with detailed descriptions of the equations provided in the flow chart available in algorithm 2 in the appendix or in [17] and [18].…”

Section: Journal Of Clean Energy Technologies Vol 5 No 2 March 2017mentioning

confidence: 99%

A Robust Pair Copula-Point Estimation Method for Probabilistic Small Signal Stability Analysis with Large Scale Integration of Wind Power

Kanyingi¹,

Wang²,

Li³

et al. 2017

JOCET

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Abstract-In this paper, a robust Pair Copula-Point Estimation Method is proposed to probabilistically analyse the impact of wind power complex dependencies and uncertainties in both wind power and loads towards a power system's small signal stability. The proposed approach is adopted to probabilistically analyse the small signal stability of the IEEE 39-bus test system at three different wind power penetration levels concurrently considering light and heavy loading conditions. Increasing wind power penetration, uncertainties in both wind power and loads and the complex dependencies between wind power sources are probabilistically established to negatively impact the system's small signal stability. The worst case is observed when the level of wind power penetration is highest alongside consideration of the uncertainties arising from both wind power and the loads, the complex dependence existing between the wind power sources and at heavy loading. Thus, increasing penetration of uncertain and strongly dependent wind power sources and the uncertainty existing in power system loads should be intensively studied as they present risks towards a power system's small signal stability.Index Terms-Dependence, probabilistic small signal stability analysis (PSSSA), pair copula, uncertainty.

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Section: Journal Of Clean Energy Technologies Vol 5 No 2 March 2017mentioning

confidence: 99%

A Robust Pair Copula-Point Estimation Method for Probabilistic Small Signal Stability Analysis with Large Scale Integration of Wind Power

Kanyingi¹,

Wang²,

Li³

et al. 2017

JOCET

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“…In the area of probabilistic power flow, previous works [10], [15] have proposed the Gram-Charlier A series to solve it. However, the convergence of this series is poor when the involved distributions are not Gaussian (see [22] or [23]).…”

Section: Cornish-fisher Expansion Seriesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In order to assess the performance of ELM and the importance of considering the dependence between random variables, its results are compared to the Point Estimate (PE) method [9], [10].…”

Section: Cdf Of Output Variablesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…A multilinear approach was proposed in [7], and fuzzy techniques [8] have been used to solve a probabilistic optimal power flow. Another recent proposal is the Point Estimate method [9], [10], that approximates the moments of the system variables of interest. This method has been also applied to the probabilistic optimal power flow problem [11].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Probabilistic load flow in systems with wind generation

Usaola

2009

IET Gener. Transm. Distrib.

148

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“…Su en 2005 fue el primero en estudiar el problema probabilístico del flujo de potencia aplicando el método de estimación por puntos [14]. Posteriormente Morales y Pérez-Ruiz mostraron el ineficiente desempeño exhibido por este método si el número de variables aleatorias de entrada era grande, y sugirieron el uso de un esquema alternativo 2m+1 para superar esta limitación [15]. En [16] Peñuela et al analizan el efecto de la generación distribuida en redes de distribución poco enmalladas empleando el método de estimación de dos puntos.…”

Section: Introductionunclassified

Ubicación óptima de condensadores en sistemas de distribución considerando incertidumbre en la demanda

2015

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Resumen-En este artículo se presenta una metodología para ubicación óptima de condensadores en sistemas de distribución de media tensión, considerando incertidumbre en la demanda. La incertidumbre en la demanda es simulada usando un flujo de carga probabilístico, el cual fue implementado con base en el método de la cadena, usado para resolver el problema operativo en el método de Montecarlo. Como método de optimización se usa una versión modificada del algoritmo genético, denominado Chu Beasley. Con el fin de potenciar el método de optimización se usan factores de sensibilidad que establecen una relación entre la potencia reactiva y las pérdidas del sistema. Para verificar la validez de la metodología, se usa un sistema de prueba de la literatura, con lo cual se concluye que el flujo de carga estocástico determina un valor medio de la demanda, obteniendo resultados similares a los obtenidos con las versiones que usan flujos de carga determinísticos.Palabras clave-flujo de carga probabilístico, método de la cadena, simulación de Montecarlo, sistemas de distribución, ubicación de condensadores.Abstract-This paper presents a methodology for optimal location of capacitors in medium voltage distribution systems, considering uncertainty in demand. This uncertainty is simulated using a probabilistic load flow, which was implemented based on the chain's method, used to solve the operational problem in the Montecarlo simulation. As a method of optimizing a modified version of genetic algorithm, called Chu Beasley, is used. In order to enhance the optimization method, sensitivity factors that establish a relationship between reactive power and system losses are used. To verify the validity of the methodology, a test system from the literature is used, which concluded that the stochastic load flow determines a mean value of demand, with similar results to those obtained with versions that use deterministic power flow.Key Word-probabilistic power flow, chain's method, Montecarlo simulation, distribution systems, capacitor placement. I. INTRODUCCIÓNEl estudio de los sistemas de distribución es un tema de gran actualidad para el sector eléctrico debido al creciente interés de las empresas por mejorar la eficiencia en la operación de la red y su estado financiero. Este esfuerzo es motivado adicionalmente por las altas rentabilidades que son obtenidas cuando se cuenta con un sistema bien planificado y una operación adecuada.Dentro de este contexto, la instalación de bancos de condensadores es una estrategia frecuentemente usada para disminuir el nivel de pérdidas, teniendo como beneficio adicional la reducción de costos de operación por el consumo de potencia reactiva [1]. El costo en inversión, instalación y mantenimiento de los bancos de condensadores en el nivel tensión II es relativamente bajo y es transmitido al consumidor final [2]. Su efecto principal es ofrecer un soporte de potencia reactiva, que al ser instalado cerca de la carga, mitiga las caídas en los perfiles de tensión en los tramos de los alimentadores. Como co...

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Point Estimate Schemes to Solve the Probabilistic Power Flow

Cited by 639 publications

References 24 publications

A Robust Pair Copula-Point Estimation Method for Probabilistic Small Signal Stability Analysis with Large Scale Integration of Wind Power

A Robust Pair Copula-Point Estimation Method for Probabilistic Small Signal Stability Analysis with Large Scale Integration of Wind Power

Probabilistic load flow in systems with wind generation

Ubicación óptima de condensadores en sistemas de distribución considerando incertidumbre en la demanda

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