Points Gained in Football: Using Markov Process-Based Value Functions to Assess Team Performance

Chan, Timothy C. Y.; Fernandes, Craig; Puterman, Martin L.

doi:10.1287/opre.2020.2034

Cited by 5 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 8 publications

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“…The operation path should clarify the operation subject, product production, operation method and fan economy, and make full use of market feedback to continuously improve and optimize the operation path (see Figure 1), to achieve the pursuit of excellent economic and social benefits while adapting to market changes. The subject choice object is the sports event copyright, which is fundamental to the legitimate development of event products [19][20][21]. The key to the main choice is to make the final decision on the proposed project based on investigation, analysis and demonstration.…”

Section: Figure 1 Diagram Of Sports Event Operationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Innovation and Application of Knowledge Graph to Improve the Efficiency of Sports Event Operation and Promotion Methods

Li,

Ma,

Cui

et al. 2023

Preprint

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Sports are an important way to strengthen people's body and enrich their lives, and they are also an important symbol of social development and progress of human civilization, and the operation and development level of sports events is an important standard to measure a country's comprehensive national power and civilization. The development of sports is inseparable from the operation and promotion of sports events. The coming of the Internet era has brought about great changes in the operation and promotion of sports events, audience habits and communication patterns, bringing new development opportunities to the sports event industry. Therefore, how to make the best use of the social and economic effects of sports event brands is a major issue in the theoretical and practical circles, and it is of utmost importance to do a good job of sports event brand operation. This study examines the current strategies of sports event operation and promotion from the perspective of brand operation and provides a reference for achieving a far-reaching and lasting impact of event branding. To this end, this paper proposes an intelligent analysis of the research on sports event operations using the knowledge graph method. Knowledge graph is a kind of semantic relationship graph that can be used as the auxiliary content of sports event operation system. The knowledge graph is connected by multiple nodes and edges, which together form a large semantic relational network that describes various entities or concepts and their relationships. It can uncover deeper relationships among users, between sporting events, and between users and sporting events. Converting big data content into knowledge enhances the understanding of Internet content and can be a good way to improve the efficiency of event operation and promotion.

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Section: Figure 1 Diagram Of Sports Event Operationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Innovation and Application of Knowledge Graph to Improve the Efficiency of Sports Event Operation and Promotion Methods

Li,

Ma,

Cui

et al. 2023

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Broadie (2008Broadie ( , 2012 developed a novel metric, strokes gained, that identifies the strengths and weaknesses of a golfer's game by building a value function in golf through dynamic programming. Chan et al (2021) developed a similar metric, points gained, in American football and provided a general theoretical justification for the use of dynamic programming-base value functions in sports. Hirotsu and Bickel (2019) modeled baseball as an MDP to quantify the value of a sacrifice bunt, discovering it to be more beneficial than previously thought.…”

Section: Related Literaturementioning

confidence: 99%

A Markov process approach to untangling intention versus execution in tennis

Chan¹,

Fearing²,

Fernandes³

et al. 2021

Preprint

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Value functions are used in sports applications to determine the optimal action players should employ. However, most literature implicitly assumes that the player can perform the prescribed action with known and fixed probability of success. The effect of varying this probability or, equivalently, "execution error" in implementing an action (e.g., hitting a tennis ball to a specific location on the court) on the design of optimal strategies, has received limited attention. In this paper, we develop a novel modeling framework based on Markov reward processes and Markov decision processes to investigate how execution error impacts a player's value function and strategy in tennis. We power our models with hundreds of millions of simulated tennis shots with 3D ball and 2D player tracking data. We find that optimal shot selection strategies in tennis become more conservative as execution error grows, and that having perfect execution with the empirical shot selection strategy is roughly equivalent to choosing one or two optimal shots with average execution error. We find that execution error on backhand shots is more costly than on forehand shots, and that optimal shot selection on a serve return is more valuable than on any other shot, over all values of execution error.

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Learning risk preferences in Markov decision processes: An application to the fourth down decision in the national football league

Sandholtz,

Wu,

Puterman

et al. 2024

Ann. Appl. Stat.

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Points Gained in Football: Using Markov Process-Based Value Functions to Assess Team Performance

Abstract: A Theoretical Foundation for Value Functions in Sports

Cited by 5 publications

References 8 publications

Innovation and Application of Knowledge Graph to Improve the Efficiency of Sports Event Operation and Promotion Methods

Innovation and Application of Knowledge Graph to Improve the Efficiency of Sports Event Operation and Promotion Methods

A Markov process approach to untangling intention versus execution in tennis

Learning risk preferences in Markov decision processes: An application to the fourth down decision in the national football league

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