Policy Change, Threat Perception, and Mobility Catalysts: The Trump Administration as Driver of Asylum Migration to Canada

Abstract

Almost 60,000 people claimed asylum at Canada's border with the United States between 2017 and 2020, marking Canada's first sustained cross-border asylum migration since the 1990s. Virtually, all entered irregularly via a rural road on the New York/Québec border. The “Roxham Road route” was partly owing to the 2004 Canada/US Safe Third Country Agreement (STCA), which allows both states to refuse asylum-seekers on the grounds that the other offers commensurate protection standards yet only applies to official ports of entry. Roughly, 40 percent of the 60,000 who claimed asylum were US residents with precarious immigration status. This article examines the route's emergence and contributes a novel case on decision-making and destination choices for asylum migration. Data are derived from interviews with over 300 asylum-seekers, two dozen experts, and monthly asylum statistics. The central finding is that Trump-administration immigration policies were the major driver for asylum migration yet do not entirely explain the new route, since a relatively small number of US residents departed for Canada. Interviews revealed that while Trump-era policies fostered a climate of fear, individual experiences with immigration enforcement, loss of temporary protected status, or deferred asylum cases were catalysts for migration. Welcoming Canadian rhetoric and liberal asylum policies were only considered in light of risk in the United States, challenging research findings that asylum-seekers are primarily motivated by destination-state policies. The article also offers qualitative methods for connecting asylum data with migrant decision-making and problematizes the STCA's ethics and effectiveness for managing asylum.

Claim Types in Canada’s Refugee Determination System

“…The one exception is a dip in 2020 at the height of the initial disruption caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. These figures reflect the overall trend of growth in the number of refugee claims made in Canada during this period, particularly from 2017 to 2019, when many refugee claimants from several countries came to Canada via the US in the years following the election of President Donald Trump (Smith, 2023) Refugee Claim Recognition Rates (%) (2013)(2014)(2015)(2016)(2017)(2018)(2019)(2020)(2021) fluctuated from year to year, but the overall trend was an increase in recognition rates. 1b lists the 10 most common countries of persecution for refugee claims finalized from 2013 to 2021.…”

Between legal fortress and uncertainty: Comparative analysis of the refugee Law frameworks in Hungary and Indonesia

“…In recent years, studies have highlighted the critical role of legal frameworks in ensuring the protection of refugees and their integration into host communities 13 . This study will add to this body of literature by examining the legal frameworks governing refugees in Hungary and Indonesia and comparing them to identify any gaps or deficiencies in their refugee laws.…”