Political Instability and Economic Vulnerability

Why Didn't the Global Financial Crisis Hit Latin America?

“…It also confirms previous work in which political indicators play a significant role in crisis forecasting (e.g. Bussière and Mulder 2000). For none of the three countries the Early Warning Systems would have issued a warning for the GFC.…”

Political instability and stock market returns: Evidence from OECD countries

“…There are only a few studies that examine this issue. For example, Bussiere and Mulder (1999) used various indicators that quantify PI during the crisis episodes of 1994 and 1997 in order to examine the effects of PI on economic vulnerability. Additionally, Jong-A-Pin (2009) examined the impact of 25 different PI indicators on economic growth.…”

A Comparison of Currency Crisis Dating Methods: Turkey 1990-2014

“…This second definition takes into account both the situations where speculative attacks lead to depreciation and where the authorities successfully defend the currency by selling foreign reserves and/or rising domestic interest rates. This speculative pressure is measured by an index (ISP, index of speculative pressure or EMPI, exchange market pressure index) that is as a weighted average of changes in nominal or real exchange rate 4 (NER or RER) and changes in foreign reserves (RES) (Kaminsky et al, 1998;Cartapanis et al, 1998;Kaminsky and Reinhart, 1999;Pattillo, 1999a, 1999b;Bussiere and Mulder, 2000;Vlaar, 2000;Kamin et al, 2001;Edison, 2003;Komulainen and Lukkarila, 2003;Caramazza et al, 2004;AlvarezPlata and Schrooten, 2004;Budsayaplakorn et al, 2010;Licchetta, 2011;Aizenman and Pasricha, 2012;Ari and Cergibozan, 2016). Some others also include changes in nominal or real interest rates (NIR or RIR) into their crisis indexes (Eichengreen et al, 1996;Hawkins and Klau, 2000;Bussiere and Fratzscher, 2006).…”