Population ageing and the labour market: Modelling size and age-specific effects

Lisenkova, Katerina; Mérette, Marcel; Wright, Robert E.

doi:10.1016/j.econmod.2013.09.007

Cited by 42 publications

(38 citation statements)

References 11 publications

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“…() further evidence that the rise in life expectancy as a result of better health will enable individuals to work for a longer period of time without facing a decrease in productivity level. Therefore, unlike some other authors (Göbel and Zwick, ; Lisenkova et al., ), Bloom et al. () stress that the rise in the retirement age of workers may not affect the productivity level of the labor force.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 92%

“…Authors such as Lisenkova et al. () reveal that population ageing tends to decrease a country's stock of human capital and, subsequently, lead to lower economic growth. However, authors such as Bloom et al.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The constant rise in life expectancy and the fall in the fertility rate were at the root of a demographic transition (Lee et al., ; Navaneetham and Dharmalingam, ). A proportionately higher older population is expected to impact on the economic growth of countries since individuals’ needs, preferences and their physical capability change as they age (Bloom et al., ; Lisenkova et al., ). Besides, a slow population growth rate is also expected to increase the burden of the working group in terms of paying higher income taxes (Navaneetham and Dharmalingam, ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The Impact of Ageing and the Speed of Ageing on the Economic Growth of Least Developed, Emerging and Developed Countries, 1990–2013

Teixeira

Nagarajan

Silva

2016

Review Development Economics

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Studies relating ageing and countries’ economic performance address mostly developed economies. However, extant studies demonstrate that less developed countries (LDC) and emerging economies (EE) are reaching the transition process faster than those from developed regions, which renders the speed of ageing, besides ageing, a critical variable to explore in this context. Comparing system dynamic panel data estimations for 40 LDC, 19 EE and 28 developed countries (DC), between 1990 and 2013, we uncovered that ageing is detrimental to countries’ economic growth, with noticeable nuances depending on countries’ development level. The current level of ageing significantly and negatively impacts on DC's growth but not on that of LDC or EE. For these latter groups, the most relevant issue is the speed of ageing. The current annual growth of old age dependency ratio significantly diminishes EE's growth prospects whereas the lagged annual growth of the ageing index and the old age dependency ratio significantly curtails LDC's growth. Such results emphasize the need for urgent public policies that might mitigate the imbalance in LDCs’ age structure before the speed of ageing leads LDCs to become even much poorer.

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Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 92%

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The Impact of Ageing and the Speed of Ageing on the Economic Growth of Least Developed, Emerging and Developed Countries, 1990–2013

Teixeira

Nagarajan

Silva

2016

Review Development Economics

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“…This class of models has been used by many researchers worldwide to analyse the economic effects of population ageing -see, for example, Fougere and Merette (1999), Fehr (2000), Kotlikoff et al (2007), Fehr et al (2008) and Lisenkova et al (2013). The model we use for our analysis is an extension of the small open economy, OLG model for Australia that was developed by Kudrna and Woodland (2011).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The dynamic fiscal effects of demographic shift: The case of Australia

Kudrna¹,

Tran²,

Woodland³

2015

Economic Modelling

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a b s t r a c t a r t i c l e i n f o Available online xxxx JEL classification: H2 J1 C68We develop a small open economy, overlapping-generations model that incorporates non-stationary demographic transition paths to study the dynamic fiscal effects of demographic shift in Australia. Since the recent ageing of Australia's population is projected to exacerbate over the coming decades, there are potentially significant macroeconomic implications and impacts on fiscal commitments for old-age related expenditures. To investigate these implications and fiscal impacts, our model pays special attention to Australia's taxation and retirement schemes, to the age structure of government expenditures, and to population dynamics via fertility, longevity and immigration. Our simulation results demonstrate that population ageing shifts the tax base from labour income towards asset income and consumption, and substantially increases old-age related government expenditures. Significant future adjustments in other government expenditures and taxes will be required to finance these expenditures. Interestingly, the main driving factor behind increased fiscal costs is the increase in survival, not the decline in fertility, rates. Increases in fertility and immigration are not effective solutions to such fiscal challenges.

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“…Classical works in population aging, focusing on the government consumption budget [1], the labour market [2], work model [3], etc. Albeit most scholars believe that social problems (such as financial strains comes from social security, Medicare and Medicaid and so on) is attributed to people are getting older faster, ageing population has been creating business opportunities for old aging industry.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Market Opportunity and Policy Support for Chinese Old Aging Industry: An Application of Text Mining

2017

SHS Web Conf.

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Abstract.Text mining has become a vital method of natural and social science research. A policy documents text mining framework with three phases has been introduced. Using 52 policies of aging industry development, this paper explores five business opportunity and three areas policy support for Chinese old aging industry. These findings contribute both foreign and local the elder service enterprise.

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Population ageing and the labour market: Modelling size and age-specific effects

Cited by 42 publications

References 11 publications

The Impact of Ageing and the Speed of Ageing on the Economic Growth of Least Developed, Emerging and Developed Countries, 1990–2013

The Impact of Ageing and the Speed of Ageing on the Economic Growth of Least Developed, Emerging and Developed Countries, 1990–2013

The dynamic fiscal effects of demographic shift: The case of Australia

Market Opportunity and Policy Support for Chinese Old Aging Industry: An Application of Text Mining

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