Population dynamics and spatial distribution of large carnivores in the Ukrainian Carpathians and Polissya

Abstract

Large carnivores play an important role as indicators of the state of the natural ecosystems. The analysis of the number and distribution of large carnivores (brown bear – Ursos arctos, Eurasian lynx – Lynx lynx and grey wolf – Canis lupus) was established in the Ukrainian Carpathians and Ukrainian Polissya. Annual data on the number of large carnivores on the territories of hunting units and nature conservation areas from 2009 to 2019 was summarized. To analyze the number and distribution of large carnivores in the Ukrainian Carpathians, data from 4 regions were taken into account, namely Lviv, Zakarpattia, Ivano-Frankivsk and Chernivtsi regions. To analyze the number and distribution of large carnivores in Ukrainian Polissya, data from 6 regions were taken into account – Volyn, Rivne, Zhytomyr, Kyiv, Chernihiv and Sumy regions. According to official data obtained from hunting units and nature conservation areas in 2019, there were 375 bears, 435 lynxes and 563 wolves in the Ukrainian Carpathians; and 4 bears, 128 lynxes and 609 wolves in Ukrainian Polissya. Based on the collected data, the maps of the distribution of large carnivores in the Ukrainian Carpathians and Ukrainian Polissya were created in the format of a grid of squares of 10 by 10 km (cell size 100 km²), namely – density maps of populations of large carnivores, as well as maps of forest habitats of large carnivores. The obtained results provided a better understanding of the dynamics of large carnivores over the last decade in terms of regions, as well as the density of populations of large carnivores in certain areas and their distribution areas in the Ukrainian Carpathians and Ukrainian Polissya. However, the summary results of the number of individuals obtained based on official reports of hunting units and nature conservation areas are overestimated due to the problem of "double" accounting of animals by users of adjacent lands (hunting units, nature conservation areas). Therefore, it is important to establish synchronization of accounting between users of adjacent lands (nature protection areas, forestries, etc.), to use unified research methods, and to exchange monitoring data and information between institutions of different state subordination. Such scientifically based data are the basis for the development and implementation of measures for the conservation and management of large carnivore populations at the regional, national and international levels.

Shining a light on elusive lynx: Density estimation of three Eurasian lynx populations in Ukraine and Belarus

“…Although concrete distribution and connectivity maps are still missing, building on work by Cherepanyn et al. (2023), we add another piece of optimistic evidence concerning the reportedly negative lynx status in the Ukrainian Carpathians noted by the (Bonn Lynx Expert Group, 2021).…”

“…The need for harmonised, scientific monitoring of Eurasian lynx is well established (Boitani et al., 2015; Bonn Lynx Expert Group, 2021), and there are huge opportunities to enhance assessments of lynx status where data gaps exist (Kubala et al., 2021). For example, gathering data collected outside of research and in Ukrainian language, as demonstrated in (Cherepanyn et al., 2023). Ukraine is also a candidate member for the EU, and a future ascension would presumably invoke standardised reporting of lynx monitoring under the Habitats Directive (EC, 1992).…”

“…using shared, systematic monitoring methods), which can lead to conflicts (Kubala et al, 2021). This is highlighted in Cherepanyn et al (2023), who point out the particular lack of common methodological approaches to lynx monitoring and the necessity to expand such in Ukraine.…”

“…A harmonised monitoring across countries, despite differences in reporting obligations, is therefore inevitable and desirable for the conservation and management of lynx (Cherepanyn et al, 2023;Heurich et al, 2021), and recommendations have already been internationally defined (Boitani et al, 2015;Bonn Lynx Expert Group, 2021;Papp et al, 2020).…”

“…In Ukraine and Belarus, despite some protection, lynx were thought to be relatively rare due to poaching pressure and habitat degradation (Shkvyria & Shevchenko, 2009). However, recent general assessments of large carnivore numbers in Ukraine since 2009 indicated a stable number of lynx in the Carpathians and slightly positive trend in Polesia (Cherepanyn et al., 2023). Increases in areas around the Chornobyl Exclusion Zone in Ukraine and Belarus (Deryabina, 2008; Zhyla, 2002), situated in Polesia, have also been reported before 2009.…”