Population transitions and temperature change in Minas Gerais, Brazil: a multidimensional approach

Barbieri, Alisson Flávio; Guedes, Gilvan Ramalho; Noronha, Kenya; Queiroz, Bernardo Lanza; Domingues, Édson Paulo; Rigotti, José Irineu Rangel; Motta, Glaucia P. da; Chein, Flávia; Cortezzi, Francisco; Confalonieri, Ulisses; Souza, Kênia Barreiro de

doi:10.1590/s0102-3098201500000028

Cited by 12 publications

(18 citation statements)

References 43 publications

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“…al. ( , 2011 e utilizado em Barbieri et al (2015) e Sessa, Simonato e Domingues (2016). Adaptações deste modelo também estão presentes em Sessa (2019), acerca dos efeitos do comércio exterior e da guerra fiscal sobre a desigualdade regional no Brasil e no Espírito Santo, e em Simonato (2016), sobre o impacto do desastre de Mariana.…”

Section: Metodologiaunclassified

Efeitos Econômicos no Espírito Santo da Paralisação Parcial do Complexo Minero- Siderúrgico: uma abordagem de Equilíbrio Geral Computável

Sessa¹,

Simonato²,

Domingues³

et al. 2021

Blucher Engineering Proceedings

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RESUMO: Esse artigo apresenta uma projeção dos impactos das paralisações parcial e total da mineração de ferro da Vale S.A. em Minas Gerais sobre a economia do Espírito Santo e regiões selecionadas. A produção de minério tem papel destacado numa cadeia produtiva inter-regional e a paralisação parcial das atividades do complexo minerosiderúrgico se constitui em um evento extremo com efeitos potencialmente significativos. Em termos metodológicos, é utilizado o modelo IMAGEM (Integrated Multi-regional Applied General Equilibrium Model), configurado, para este trabalho, em 126 produtos/setores e 7 regiões: Espírito Santo,

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Section: Metodologiaunclassified

Efeitos Econômicos no Espírito Santo da Paralisação Parcial do Complexo Minero- Siderúrgico: uma abordagem de Equilíbrio Geral Computável

Sessa¹,

Simonato²,

Domingues³

et al. 2021

Blucher Engineering Proceedings

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“…Since climate does not respect political boundaries, any steps taken towards environment sustainability require political agreements on a global scale, as well as some level of domestic economic sacrifice among select demographic and economic sectors [ 8 , 9 ]. Because of the complex coordination required, structural changes in economic production and human occupation that reduce climatic exposure are considered the most difficult targets on the vulnerability reduction agenda [ 2 , 4 , 10 ].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Earlier research has already estimated multidimensional indices of health vulnerability to climatic conditions in Brazil at both the national [ 1 ] and local levels, encompassing studies focused on the Northeast [ 51 ], semiarid areas [ 30 ], and specific Brazilian states, including Minas Gerais [ 10 ], Amazonas [ 2 ], and Rio de Janeiro [ 52 ]. The proposed ECVI builds upon these prior efforts in multiple ways.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Health-related vulnerability to climate extremes in homoclimatic zones of Amazonia and Northeast region of Brazil

et al. 2021

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Amazonia and the Northeast region of Brazil exhibit the highest levels of climate vulnerability in the country. While Amazonia is characterized by an extremely hot and humid climate and hosts the world largest rainforest, the Northeast is home to sharp climatic contrasts, ranging from rainy areas along the coast to semiarid regions that are often affected by droughts. Both regions are subject to extremely high temperatures and are susceptible to many tropical diseases. This study develops a multidimensional Extreme Climate Vulnerability Index (ECVI) for Brazilian Amazonia and the Northeast region based on the Alkire-Foster method. Vulnerability is defined by three components, encompassing exposure (proxied by seven climate extreme indicators), susceptibility (proxied by sociodemographic indicators), and adaptive capacity (proxied by sanitation conditions, urbanization rate, and healthcare provision). In addition to the estimated vulnerability levels and intensity, we break down the ECVI by indicators, dimensions, and regions, in order to explore how the incidence levels of climate-sensitive infectious and parasitic diseases correlate with regional vulnerability. We use the Grade of Membership method to reclassify the mesoregions into homoclimatic zones based on extreme climatic events, so climate and population/health data can be analyzed at comparable resolutions. We find two homoclimatic zones: Extreme Rain (ER) and Extreme Drought and High Temperature (ED-HT). Vulnerability is higher in the ED-HT areas than in the ER. The contribution of each dimension to overall vulnerability levels varies by homoclimatic zone. In the ER zone, adaptive capacity (39%) prevails as the main driver of vulnerability among the three dimensions, in contrast with the approximately even dimensional contribution in the ED-HT. When we compare areas by disease incidence levels, exposure emerges as the most influential dimension. Our results suggest that climate can exacerbate existing infrastructure deficiencies and socioeconomic conditions that are correlated with tropical disease incidence in impoverished areas.

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“…Minas Gerais is a rural state uniquely positioned in a transition zone between forested areas to the northwest and the southeastern coastal states [15]. It is however distinct from Amazon-like forested areas and is comprised predominantly of a savannah-like cerrado biome on the western side of the state and the Atlantic rainforest on the eastern side ("Mata Atlântica") which is contiguous with São Paulo, Espírito Santo, and Rio de Janiero [2,16].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Reemergence of yellow fever virus in southeastern Brazil, 2017-2018: what sparked the spread?

Rosser

Nielsen‐Saines

Saad

et al. 2021

Preprint

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Background: The 2017-2018 yellow fever virus (YFV) outbreak in southeastern Brazil marked a reemergence of YFV in urban states that had been YFV free for nearly a century. Unlike earlier urban YFV transmission, this epidemic was also driven by forest mosquitos. The objective of this study was to evaluate environmental drivers of this outbreak. Methodology/Principal Findings: Using surveillance data from the Brazilian Ministry of Health of human and non-human primate (NHP) cases of yellow fever, we traced the spatiotemporal progression of the outbreak. We then assessed the epidemic timing in relation to drought using a monthly Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). Lastly, we evaluated demographic risk factors for rural or outdoor exposure amongst YFV cases. Both human and NHP cases were first identified in a hot, dry, rural area in northern Minas Gerais before spreading southeast into the more cool, wet urban states of Espirito Santo, Sao Paulo, and Rio de Janeiro. Outbreaks also coincided with drought in all four southeastern states of Brazil. Confirmed YFV cases had an increased odds of being male (OR 2.58; 95% CI 2.28-2.92), working age (OR: 2.03; 95% CI: 1.76-2.35), and reporting recent travel from an urban to a rural area (OR: 5.02; 95% CI: 3.76-6.69). Conclusions/Significance: The 2017-2018 YFV epidemic in Brazil originated in hot, dry rural areas of Minas Gerais before expanding south into urban centers. An unusually severe drought in this region may have created environmental pressures that sparked the reemergence of YFV in Brazil's southeastern cities.

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Population transitions and temperature change in Minas Gerais, Brazil: a multidimensional approach

Cited by 12 publications

References 43 publications

Efeitos Econômicos no Espírito Santo da Paralisação Parcial do Complexo Minero- Siderúrgico: uma abordagem de Equilíbrio Geral Computável

Efeitos Econômicos no Espírito Santo da Paralisação Parcial do Complexo Minero- Siderúrgico: uma abordagem de Equilíbrio Geral Computável

Health-related vulnerability to climate extremes in homoclimatic zones of Amazonia and Northeast region of Brazil

Reemergence of yellow fever virus in southeastern Brazil, 2017-2018: what sparked the spread?

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