Possible impacts of mega‐El Niño/Southern Oscillation and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation on Eurasian heatwave frequency variability

Zhou, Yi; Wu, Zhiwei

doi:10.1002/qj.2759

Cited by 57 publications

(39 citation statements)

References 99 publications

(112 reference statements)

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“…Previous studies have pointed out that SST anomalies in the North Atlantic can exert remote influences on climate in downstream areas through the eastward propagating Rossby wave train emanating from the North Atlantic (Li and Bates 2007;Wu et al 2009;Cui et al 2015;Sun et al 2015cSun et al , 2016Zhou and Wu 2016). It is hypothesized here that SST anomalies in southwest South Atlantic can also excite a decadal-scale teleconnection wave train similar to that presented in Fig.…”

Section: Thermodynamic Equationsupporting

confidence: 64%

Decadal-scale teleconnection between South Atlantic SST and southeast Australia surface air temperature in austral summer

Xue

Sun

et al. 2017

Clim Dyn

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pathway and spatial scale of the observed SAA wave train are further explained by the Rossby wave ray tracing analysis in non-uniform basic flow. The SAA wave train forced by southwest South Atlantic warming is characterized by an anomalous anticyclone off the eastern coast of the Australia. Temperature diagnostic analyses based on the thermodynamic equation suggest anomalous northerly flows on western flank of this anticyclone can induce lowlevel warm advection anomaly over SEA, which thus lead to the warming of surface air temperature there. Finally, SST-forced atmospheric general circulation model ensemble experiments also demonstrate that SST forcing in the South Atlantic is associated with the SAA teleconnection wave train in austral summer, this wave train then modulate surface air temperature over SEA on decadal timescales. Hence, observations combined with numerical simulations consistently demonstrate the decadal-scale teleconnection between South Atlantic SST and summertime surface air temperature over SEA.

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Section: Thermodynamic Equationsupporting

confidence: 64%

Decadal-scale teleconnection between South Atlantic SST and southeast Australia surface air temperature in austral summer

Xue

Sun

et al. 2017

Clim Dyn

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“…The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) appeared to have no clear effect on the numbers of warm days between April and October in the UK [21]. However, a more recent analysis [22] of the AMO and ENSO suggested that the ENSO does modulate the number of heat wave days in the UK, although the effect was smaller than that of the AMO.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 95%

“…Nevertheless, the statistical model could be extended to include these cold SST anomalies, either as a simple binary flag or by the meridional SST gradient, as another possible indicator of a summer heat wave. Another study [22] showed that both the mega-El Niño/Southern Oscillation (mega-ENSO) and the AMO modulated the number of heat wave days (HWF) over Europe on decadal timescales, although the effect of the AMO was larger. The statistical model could be extended to include the mega-ENSO.…”

Section: Limitations and Further Workmentioning

confidence: 99%

Historical Trends and Variability in Heat Waves in the United Kingdom

et al. 2017

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Increases in numbers and lengths of heat waves have previously been identified in global temperature records, including locations within Europe. However, studies of changes in UK heat wave characteristics are limited. Historic daily maximum temperatures from 29 weather stations with records exceeding 85 years in length across the country were examined. Heat waves were defined as periods with unusually high temperatures for each station, even if the temperatures would not be considered warm in an absolute sense. Positive trends in numbers and lengths of heat waves were identified at some stations. However, for some stations in the south east of England, lengths of very long heat waves (over 10 days) had declined since the 1970s, whereas the lengths of shorter heat waves had increased slightly. Considerable multidecadal variability in heat wave numbers and lengths was apparent at all stations. Logistic regression, using a subset of eight stations with records beginning in the nineteenth century, suggested an association between the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and the variability in heat wave numbers and lengths, with the summertime North Atlantic Oscillation playing a smaller role. The results were robust against different temperature thresholds.

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“…1b;Hansen et al 189 2012;Kamae et al 2014a). The Pacific and Atlantic SST DMV (Zhou and Wu 2016) and direct anthropogenic 190 influences (Kamae et al 2014a) are important for the decadal-scale increase in frequency of hot summers in the 191 early 21st century despite the slowdown of the annual-mean global-mean SAT increase (e.g. Kosaka and Xie 192 2013;Fyfe et al 2016).…”

Section: Global Variations 176mentioning

confidence: 99%

Forced response and internal variability of summer climate over western North America

Kamae

Shiogama

Imada³

et al. 2016

Clim Dyn

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23Over the past decade, anomalously hot summers and persistent droughts frequented over the western 24United States (wUS), the condition similar to the 1950s and 1960s. While atmospheric internal variability is 25 important for mid-latitude interannual climate variability, it has been suggested that anthropogenic external 26 forcing and multidecadal modes of variability in sea surface temperature (SST), namely, the Pacific Decadal 27Oscillation (PDO) and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), also affect the occurrence of droughts and hot 28 summers. In this study, 100-member ensemble simulations for 1951-2010 by an atmospheric general circulation 29 model (AGCM) were used to explore relative contributions of anthropogenic warming, atmospheric internal 30 variability, and atmospheric response to PDO and AMO to the decadal anomalies over the wUS. By comparing 31 historical and sensitivity simulations driven by observed sea surface temperature, sea ice, historical forcing 32 agents, and non-warming counterfactual climate forcing, we found that large portions of recent increases in mean 33 temperature and frequency of hot summers (66% and 82%) over the wUS can be attributed to the anthropogenic 34 global warming. In contrast, multidecadal change in the wUS precipitation is explained by a combination of the 35 negative PDO and the positive AMO after the 2000s. Diagnostics using a linear baroclinic model indicate that 36 AMO-and PDO-related diabatic heating anomalies over the tropics contribute to the anomalous atmospheric 37 circulation associated with the droughts and hot summers over wUS on multidecadal timescale. Those anomalies 38 are not robust during the periods when PDO and AMO are in phase. The prolonged PDO-AMO antiphase period 39 since the late 20th century resulted in the substantial component of multidecadal anomalies in temperature and 40 precipitation over the wUS. 41 3

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Possible impacts of mega‐El Niño/Southern Oscillation and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation on Eurasian heatwave frequency variability

Cited by 57 publications

References 99 publications

Decadal-scale teleconnection between South Atlantic SST and southeast Australia surface air temperature in austral summer

Decadal-scale teleconnection between South Atlantic SST and southeast Australia surface air temperature in austral summer

Historical Trends and Variability in Heat Waves in the United Kingdom

Forced response and internal variability of summer climate over western North America

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