Post-TPP Trade Policy Options for ASEAN and Its Dialogue Partners: 'Preference Ordering' Using CGE Analysis

Ji, Xianbai; Rana, Pradumna B.; Chia, Wai‐Mun; Li, Changtai

doi:10.2139/ssrn.3206466

Cited by 6 publications

(10 citation statements)

References 34 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…Kawasaki (2015) and Kawasaki et al (2019) focused on the analysis of EPAs in Asia-Pacific, such as the trans-pacific partnership (TPP) and RCEP. Other studies by Kawasaki (2017) and Ji et al (2018) extensively examined the Asia-Pacific integration and alternative regional trade agreements (RTAs). As a result, they reported that NTBs reduction compared to tariff removals would have a strong impact on income gain, so that local market regulation would play a crucial process/role for economic growth from EPAs.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Japan-AfCFTA Integration Through Economic Impacts of Alternative EPA Scenarios

Biyik

2021

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

This paper analyzes the impact on an economic partnership agreement (EPA) between African countries and Japan through trade liberalization and reduction in non-tariff barriers. This study aims to investigate sectoral interconnections and participation in the EPA that would facilitate further possible opportunities for Japan-African businesses. The methodology employed is the Computable General Equilibrium model integrated with the Global Trade Analysis Project version 10A Multi-Region Input-Output database. We first modified the GTAP’s structure form to develop a long-run closure under steady-state and thereafter examined the African Continental Free Trade Area-Japan Economic Partnership Agreement (AfJEPA) with several EPAs scenarios relying on the quantitative comparison of economic impacts of different technical measurements. As a result, the AfJEPA can provide new possible opportunities for Africa-Japan businesses, such as contributing to the existing African and Japanese mega-regional trade agreements. Specifically, the electronics, petroleum and coal, and chemical, rubber, and plastic industries in Africa would see the highest percent growth. Likewise, the Japanese industries would improve their productivity in the motor vehicles and transport equipment, chemical, rubber, and plastic, and textiles and apparel industries. To sum up, trade facilitation and knowledge transfer, which policymakers can improve concrete action and investment, would considerably stimulate African and Japanese real GDP. Thus, the potential for growth would rely on how deep the integration policy would be.

show abstract

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Japan-AfCFTA Integration Through Economic Impacts of Alternative EPA Scenarios

Biyik

2021

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…In the second scenario, the (CP)TPP and RCEP converge into an FTAAP. Both a bottom-up, dual-track approach 52 and a top-down, multi-tier approach 53 have been proposed to that end. Under the former option, the first step towards stitching the two mega-FTAs into an FTAAP is to encourage countries to secure dual membership.…”

Section: Convergencementioning

confidence: 99%

A Deal that Does Not Die: The United States and the Rise, Fall and Future of the (CP)TPP

Rana

2019

Pacific Focus

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The Trans‐Pacific Partnership (TPP) is one of the most politically resilient economic arrangements of the past decades. Its evolution, including the highs and lows, is closely tied to the shifting positions of the United States. This article examines the role played by the United States in the rise, fall and future of the TPP and its successor, the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for TPP (CPTPP). First, this article revisits Washington's threefold geo‐economic interest behind the original TPP in terms of projecting influence in Asian affairs, supporting Obama's Rebalance to Asia strategy, and leading the regional rule‐writing efforts to facilitate 21st century trade and investment. Second, this article delves into offering an explanation of the loss of the TPP in the United States. It argues that the TPP was crippled under an overlay of bad timing, bad politics and bad context. Specifically, the 2016 elections, Trump's disapproving views on the TPP, and the narrow and underperforming US trade policy ecosystem at large were the key factors leading to the US withdrawal from the TPP. In conclusion, the article considers the future of the CPTPP by asking and answering three questions: Will China and other countries join the bloc? Will the CPTPP evolve into a Free Trade Area of the Asia‐Pacific? And, are the CPTPP and the China‐backed Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership part of the Asia‐Pacific's constructive response to Trump's protectionism?

show abstract

“…While (mega-)FTAs might be inferior to a multilateral trade agreement, countries are likely to be better off with some sorts of regional trading agreement than without one (Ji et al 2018b) according to the game and our CGE simulations. And measured by the projected positive net welfare gains for the world as a whole, there seems to be net global efficiency gains arising from the broadened geographical coverage of mega-FTAs which lessen the detrimental scope of less efficient within-jurisdiction producers undercutting more efficient out-of-jurisdiction exporters.…”

Section: Interpreting the Gamementioning

confidence: 85%

“…Different combinations of assumptions yield varying conclusions and implications regarding the economic consequences of 13 In this sub-section, only the theoretical foundations about trade creation and trade diversion are briefly explained using graphs. Empirical findings can be found in Soloaga and Winters (2001), Trefler (2004), Romalis (2007), Carrere (2006), Acharya et al (2011), Kikuchi, Yanagida, and Vo (2018), Ji et al (2018a) and others.…”

Section: Figure 15 Trade Pattern Of the Model Economymentioning

confidence: 89%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Competitive mega-regionalism : the trilateral geo-economic power play by the United States of America, China and the European Union

Ji¹

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

CHAPTER IAdministration underscoring the impossibility of a US return to the TPP, the remaining 11 signatories moved on to sign a renamed and surgically trimmed-down Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) without the US in March 2018 in the Chilean capital of Santiago. A total of 22 (relatively minor) provisions from the original TPP agreement (New Zealand Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade 2018b) will not have effect on the CPTPP parties (but they could be reinstated at a later date) 9 . The CPTPP can be provisionally applied 9 The following changes are made to the CPTPP. 1) Article 3 of Annex 26A is suspended. The provision that would have required national pharmaceutical management agencies to make administrative changes to primarily benefit the pharmaceutical industry has been suspended.2) In the Investment chapter, six articles and Annex 9-L are suspended, curbing businesses' ability to sue government for investment contract breaches. 3) Article 11.2.2(b), the phrase 'Article 9.6 (Minimum Standard of Treatment)' and Annex 11-E are suspended. 4) Article 18.63 is suspended, meaning countries will no longer be required to extend the term of protection for copyright from 50 years to 70 years. 5) and 6) Articles 18.50 and 18.51 are suspended. There are no data or market protection obligations for new medicines, including biologics. 7) Article 18.37 paragraph 2 and the last sentence of Article 18.37.4 are suspended to afford more flexibility around what is patentable. 8) and 9) Articles 18.46 and 18.48 are suspended. CPTPP countries will not have to change their laws to enable people to apply for an extension of the term of a patent following unreasonable delays. 10) Article 15.8.5 is suspended. The suspension means government are not legally required to promote compliance with international labour rights as part of their procurement processes. 11) Article 15.24.2 phrase 'No later than three years after the date of entry into force of this Agreement' is suspended, meaning further negotiations to expand government procurement coverage will be delayed. 12) and 13) Article 18.68 and Article 18.69 are suspended. Countries will not have to provide more extensive protection to 'technological protection measures' and 'rights management information'. 14) Article 18.82, Annex 18-E and Annex 18-F are suspended. Countries retain the right to adjust rules for liability of internet service providers for on-line copyright infringement. 15) Article 18.79 is suspended, meaning countries will not have to provide more extensive protection for encrypted programme-carrying satellite and cable programme signals. 16) Article 20.17.5 phrase 'or another applicable law' is suspended. The suspended language would have required countries to act to address violations to the wildlife trafficking laws of countries that were not party to the CPTPP. 17) Article 5.7.1(f) second sentence is suspended. CPTPP countries retain the right to regulate and review customs duties for express shipments. 18) Articl...

show abstract

Post-TPP Trade Policy Options for ASEAN and Its Dialogue Partners: 'Preference Ordering' Using CGE Analysis

Cited by 6 publications

References 34 publications

Japan-AfCFTA Integration Through Economic Impacts of Alternative EPA Scenarios

Japan-AfCFTA Integration Through Economic Impacts of Alternative EPA Scenarios

A Deal that Does Not Die: The United States and the Rise, Fall and Future of the (CP)TPP

Competitive mega-regionalism : the trilateral geo-economic power play by the United States of America, China and the European Union

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About