Potential climate-change impacts on the Chesapeake Bay

Najjar, Raymond G.; Pyke, Christopher R.; Adams, Mary Beth; Breitburg, Denise L.; Hershner, Carl; Kemp, Michael; Howarth, Robert W.; Mulholland, Margaret R.; Paolisso, Michael; Secor, David H.; Sellner, Kevin G.; Wardrop, Denice H.; Wood, R.

doi:10.1016/j.ecss.2009.09.026

Cited by 449 publications

(393 citation statements)

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“…From a physical standpoint, warming of waters decreases dissolved oxygen and can cause changes in density, circulation patterns, and stratification (Scavia et al 2002;Harley et al 2006;Najjar et al 2010). From a biogeochemical standpoint, eutrophication-a world-wide problem of polluted estuaries (Bricker et al 2007)-is expected to worsen as WT rise (Scavia et al 2002;Rabalais et al 2009;Najjar et al 2010).…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…From a biological standpoint, rising WT of both freshwater and estuarine systems alters species ranges and community composition of phytoplankton (Coles and Jones 2000), submerged aquatic vegetation (Short and Neckles 1999;Najjar et al 2010), and fish (Beitinger et al 2000;Isaak et al 2012). From a physical standpoint, warming of waters decreases dissolved oxygen and can cause changes in density, circulation patterns, and stratification (Scavia et al 2002;Harley et al 2006;Najjar et al 2010). From a biogeochemical standpoint, eutrophication-a world-wide problem of polluted estuaries (Bricker et al 2007)-is expected to worsen as WT rise (Scavia et al 2002;Rabalais et al 2009;Najjar et al 2010).…”

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confidence: 99%

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Rising air and stream-water temperatures in Chesapeake Bay region, USA

Rice

Jastram

2014

Climatic Change

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Monthly mean air temperature (AT) at 85 sites and instantaneous stream-water temperature (WT) at 129 sites for 1960-2010 are examined for the mid-Atlantic region, USA. Temperature anomalies for two periods, 1961-1985 and 1985-2010, relative to the climate normal period of 1971-2000, indicate that the latter period was statistically significantly warmer than the former for both mean AT and WT. Statistically significant temporal trends across the region of 0.023°C per year for AT and 0.028°C per year for WT are detected using simple linear regression. Sensitivity analyses show that the irregularly sampled WT data are appropriate for trend analyses, resulting in conservative estimates of trend magnitude. Relations between 190 landscape factors and significant trends in AT-WT relations are examined using principal components analysis. Measures of major dams and deciduous forest are correlated with WT increasing slower than AT, whereas agriculture in the absence of major dams is correlated with WT increasing faster than AT. Increasing WT trends are detected despite increasing trends in streamflow in the northern part of the study area. Continued warming of contributing streams to Chesapeake Bay likely will result in shifts in distributions of aquatic biota and contribute to worsened eutrophic conditions in the bay and its estuaries.

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confidence: 99%

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Rising air and stream-water temperatures in Chesapeake Bay region, USA

Rice

Jastram

2014

Climatic Change

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“…Instead, energy may be stored in other tissues (i.e., soma) and used for maintenance metabolism, growth, and movement. Hypoxic episodes within Chesapeake Bay are expected to increase in association with global climate change (Boesch et al 2007;Najjar et al 2010), resulting in (1) a greater frequency of fish exposure to hypoxia or its indirect effects and (2) subsequent potential changes in the reproductive output of Atlantic Croakers.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Variability in Fish Tissue Proximate Composition is Consistent with Indirect Effects of Hypoxia in Chesapeake Bay Tributaries

Tuckey

Fabrizio

2016

Mar Coast Fish

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The spatial and temporal extent of summer hypoxia (dissolved oxygen [DO] concentration ≤ 2 mg/L) in Chesapeake Bay and its tributaries has been increasing for decades, consequently affecting fish distribution and abundance by shifting biomass to non‐hypoxic habitats. Hypoxia in coastal waters impacts food web dynamics, thereby limiting ecosystem productivity and affecting regional fisheries. Additionally, laboratory studies of Atlantic Croakers Micropogonias undulatus have shown that hypoxia serves as an endocrine disruptor, reducing the production of the yolk precursor vitellogenin as well as affecting other biochemical pathways. Reproductive potential is therefore lower in hypoxia‐exposed Atlantic Croakers than in fish that are taken from normoxic conditions. We examined field‐caught Atlantic Croakers from three Chesapeake Bay tributaries with different DO levels to evaluate patterns in the lipid content of somatic and gonadal tissues. We found that somatic lipid content was not affected by the presence of hypoxia, whereas ovarian lipid content was significantly affected by the severity of hypoxia. Furthermore, Atlantic Croakers that were exposed indirectly to mild hypoxia (lasting hours to days) exhibited greater ovarian lipid content than fish that were captured from normoxic sites. As expected, severe hypoxia reduced the ability of Atlantic Croakers to accumulate lipids in their ovaries, likely affecting reproductive output. Stock assessment models that ignore the effects of hypoxia may yield overly optimistic production estimates for hypoxia‐exposed populations, particularly if environmentally invariant fecundity and growth are assumed.Received December 16, 2014; accepted September 24, 2015

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“…By the end of the century, the Chesapeake region will be subject to a mean temperature increase of 2-6°C and a 50-160% increase in CO 2 concentrations (Najjar et al 2010). Here we consider how these two factors will affect the physiology of Chesapeake Bay SAV directly, as these are also widely applicable to other estuaries.…”

Section: Sav In the New Chesapeakementioning

confidence: 99%

Twenty-first century climate change and submerged aquatic vegetation in a temperate estuary: the case of Chesapeake Bay

Arnold

Zimmerman

Engelhardt

et al. 2017

Ecosyst Health Sustain

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Introduction: The Chesapeake Bay was once renowned for expansive meadows of submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV). However, only 10% of the original meadows survive. Future restoration efforts will be complicated by accelerating climate change, including physiological stressors such as a predicted mean temperature increase of 2-6°C and a 50-160% increase in CO 2 concentrations. Outcomes: As the Chesapeake Bay begins to exhibit characteristics of a subtropical estuary, summer heat waves will become more frequent and severe. Warming alone would eventually eliminate eelgrass (Zostera marina) from the region. It will favor native heat-tolerant species such as widgeon grass (Ruppia maritima) while facilitating colonization by non-native seagrasses (e.g., Halodule spp.). Intensifying human activity will also fuel coastal zone acidification and the resulting high CO 2 /low pH conditions may benefit SAV via a "CO 2 fertilization effect." Discussion: Acidification is known to offset the effects of thermal stress and may have similar effects in estuaries, assuming water clarity is sufficient to support CO 2 -stimulated photosynthesis and plants are not overgrown by epiphytes. However, coastal zone acidification is variable, driven mostly by local biological processes that may or may not always counterbalance the effects of regional warming. This precarious equipoise between two forcesthermal stress and acidification -will be critically important because it may ultimately determine the fate of cool-water plants such as Zostera marina in the Chesapeake Bay. Conclusion: The combined impacts of warming, coastal zone acidification, water clarity, and overgrowth of competing algae will determine the fate of SAV communities in rapidly changing temperate estuaries.

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Potential climate-change impacts on the Chesapeake Bay

Cited by 449 publications

References 134 publications

Rising air and stream-water temperatures in Chesapeake Bay region, USA

Rising air and stream-water temperatures in Chesapeake Bay region, USA

Variability in Fish Tissue Proximate Composition is Consistent with Indirect Effects of Hypoxia in Chesapeake Bay Tributaries

Twenty-first century climate change and submerged aquatic vegetation in a temperate estuary: the case of Chesapeake Bay

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