Potential effects of changes in climate, population density and land use land cover on spatial distribution of Adansonia digitata suitable habitats in Africa

Abstract

The objective of the current study was to determine the potential effects of changes in climate, population density and land use land cover (LULC) on the spatial distribution of Adansonia digitata (baobab tree) suitable habitats in Africa using MaxEnt. Across its distribution, A. digitata is confined to Africa's mainland and isolated parts of the continent such as Madagascar. The geographical distribution of A. digitata will shrink gradually under climate change scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5), population density and LULC‐development threat changes. Rainfall wettest quarter, soil type, elevation, rainfall seasonality and mean annual rainfall were the most important variables in terms of relative contribution to the occurrence of A. digitata. Population density was also important compared to LULC – development threat index. Only a small part of the current range of the baobab tree in Africa will retain suitable environmental conditions for viable baobab populations in future, high concentration will be in Malawi, Mozambique and parts of Benin, Senegal, Burkina Faso, Zimbabwe, Botswana, Tanzania and Madagascar. Despite threats to the specie, there are areas currently not suitable although they will be suitable in future. There is an urgent need for conservation strategies aimed at preserving A. digitata to benefit local communities socially and economically.