Potential global and regional geographic distribution of Phomopsis vaccinii on Vaccinium species projected by two species distribution models

Narouei‐Khandan, Hossein A.; Harmon, Carrie L.; Harmon, Philip F.; Olmstead, James W.; Zelenev, V.V.; Werf, Wopke Van der; Worner, Susan P.; Senay, Senait D.; Bruggen, A.H.C. van

doi:10.1007/s10658-017-1146-4

Cited by 28 publications

(34 citation statements)

References 29 publications

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“…In this study, we had a variety in the number of observations from the field, and assumed that the spatial distribution and number for each pine species were important to the performance of each of the models developed in this study. Our results corroborated the importance and usefulness of diagnosis data for occurrence prediction and their contribution to a better understanding of a species' reaction to climatic variables [68].…”

Section: Final Considerationssupporting

confidence: 81%

Current and Potential Spatial Distribution of Six Endangered Pine Species of Mexico: Towards a Conservation Strategy

Sánchez¹,

Miranda²,

González-Hernández³

et al. 2018

Forests

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Mexico is home to the highest species diversity of pines: 46 species out of 113 reported around the world. Within the great diversity of pines in Mexico, Pinus culminicola Andresen et Beaman, P. jaliscana Perez de la Rosa, P. maximartinenzii Rzed., P. nelsonii Shaw, P. pinceana Gordon, and P. rzedowskii Madrigal et M. Caball. are six catalogued as threatened or endangered due to their restricted distribution and low population density. Therefore, they are of special interest for forest conservation purposes. In this paper, we aim to provide up-to-date information on the spatial distribution of these six pine species according to different historical registers coming from different herbaria distributed around the country by using spatial modeling. Therefore, we recovered historical observations of the natural distribution of each species and modelled suitable areas of distribution according to environmental requirements. Finally, we evaluated the distributions by contrasting changes of vegetation in the period 1991–2016. The results highlight areas of distribution for each pine species in the northeast, west, and central parts of Mexico. The results of this study are intended to be the basis of in situ and ex situ conservation strategies for the endangered Mexican pines.

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Section: Final Considerationssupporting

confidence: 81%

Current and Potential Spatial Distribution of Six Endangered Pine Species of Mexico: Towards a Conservation Strategy

Sánchez¹,

Miranda²,

González-Hernández³

et al. 2018

Forests

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“…One of these models (CLIMEX) is considered semimechanistic, while two other modelling platforms used in this study (MaxEnt and Multi‐Model Framework or MMF) are correlative models. They have been used in different studies to evaluate and project the potential distribution of various invasive organisms into new areas (Booth et al , ; Kriticos et al , ; Narouei‐Khandan et al , , ; Shimwela et al , ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Projecting the suitability of global and local habitats for myrtle rust (Austropuccinia psidii) using model consensus

et al. 2019

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Myrtle rust (caused by Austropuccinia psidii) affects more than 500 known host species in the Myrtaceae family. Three different modelling approaches (CLIMEX, MaxEnt and Multi‐Model Framework) were used to project the habitat suitability for myrtle rust at both global and local scales. Current data on the global occurrence of myrtle rust were collected from online literature and expert solicitation. Long‐term averages of climate data (1960–1990) were sourced from WorldClim and CliMond websites. Recent reports of myrtle rust in New Zealand were used for validation of model outputs but not in model training and testing. The model outputs were combined into a consensus model to identify localities projected to be suitable for myrtle rust according to two or three models (hotspots). In addition to the locations where the pathogen is currently present, all models successfully projected independent occurrence data in New Zealand suitable for establishment of the pathogen. Climate suitability for the pathogen was primarily related to temperature followed by rainfall in MaxEnt and the CLIMEX model. The results confirmed the optimum temperature range of this pathogen in the literature (15–25 °C). Additional analysis of the precipitation variables indicated that excessive rain (more than 2000 mm in warmest quarter of the year) combined with high temperatures (>30 °C) constrain pathogen establishment. The results of the current study can be useful for countries such as New Zealand, China, South Africa and Singapore where the pathogen has not fully spread or established.

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“…Literature on Phomopsis ( or Diaporthe) vaccinii in the Russian language was also obtained through Google and translated into English by EFSA staff. In addition, a recent paper on the potential distribution of Vaccinium twig blight in Europe based on the current global distribution and global long‐term climate data (Narouei‐Khandan et al., ) was used for the delineation of the potential establishment area. Biogeographic information on the distribution of Vaccinium species in the EU was obtained from several forestry books and specific websites found through Google.…”

Section: Data and Methodologiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The climate is moderately conducive in most areas where Vaccinium spp. grow, especially in the western half of the EU; there is a low risk of establishment in those areas (Narouei‐Khandan et al., ). However, the climate is highly conducive in most of the eastern part of the EU.…”

Section: Data and Methodologiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Pest risk assessment of Diaporthe vaccinii for the EU territory

Jeger¹,

Bragard²,

Caffier³

et al. 2017

EFS2

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As requested by the European Commission, the EFSA Panel on Plant Health (PLH) Panel assessed the risk of Diaporthe vaccinii in the EU, focusing on entry, establishment, spread and impacts on cultivated and wild Vaccinium species, the principal hosts being American and European cranberry and blueberry. Several outbreaks occurred in the EU since 1956, but most were eradicated except in Latvia. The Panel considered entry via fruits and plants for planting. The risk of establishment from discarded infected berries is much lower than from infected plants for planting, of which, potted plants and cuttings pose the greatest risk, while plug plants, derived from tissue culture and grown in pest free structures, pose a low risk. Nine per cent of the EU is highly suitable for establishment of the pathogen, mostly in the SE and NE. Following establishment, the pathogen could spread naturally over short range, and by human assistance over long range. Calculations with an integrated model for entry, establishment and spread, indicate that with current regulations, over a period of 5 years, a few hundred cultivated Vaccinium plants and several thousand Vaccinium plants in natural ecosystems would contract the disease. The associated loss of commercial production is small, less than one tonne of berries per year. On natural vegetation, the median impact after 5 years was estimated to be negligible affecting a negligible proportion of the natural Vaccinium population (2 9 10 À8 ). However, the uncertainty of this estimate was high, due to uncertainty about the rate of spread; in a worst-case scenario (99th percentile), almost 1% of plants in natural areas would become infected. Complete deregulation (scenario A1) was predicted to increase the impact substantially, especially in natural areas, while additional measures (scenario A2) would effectively eliminate the entry of infected plants for planting, further reducing the impacts below the current situation.

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Potential global and regional geographic distribution of Phomopsis vaccinii on Vaccinium species projected by two species distribution models

Cited by 28 publications

References 29 publications

Current and Potential Spatial Distribution of Six Endangered Pine Species of Mexico: Towards a Conservation Strategy

Current and Potential Spatial Distribution of Six Endangered Pine Species of Mexico: Towards a Conservation Strategy

Projecting the suitability of global and local habitats for myrtle rust (Austropuccinia psidii) using model consensus

Pest risk assessment of Diaporthe vaccinii for the EU territory

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