Potential impact of future climate change on sugarcane under dryland conditions in Mexico

Abstract

Assessments of impacts of future climate change on widely grown sugarcane varieties can guide decision‐making and help ensure the economic stability of numerous rural households. This study assessed the potential impact of future climatic change on sugarcane grown under dryland conditions in Mexico and identified key climate factors influencing yield. The Agricultural Land Management Alternatives with Numerical Assessment Criteria (ALMANAC) model was used to simulate sugarcane growth and yield under current and future climate conditions. Management, soil and climate data from farm sites in Jalisco (Pacific Mexico) and San Luis Potosi (Northeastern Mexico) were used to simulate baseline yields. Baseline climate was developed with 30‐year historical data from weather stations close to the sites. Future climate for three decadal periods (2021–2050) was constructed by adding forecasted climate values from downscaled outputs of global circulation models to baseline values. Climate change impacts were assessed by comparing baseline yields with those in future decades under the A2 scenario. Results indicate positive impacts of future climate change on sugarcane yields in the two regions, with increases of 1%–13% (0.6–8.0 Mg/ha). As seen in the multiple correlation analysis, evapotranspiration explains 77% of the future sugarcane yield in the Pacific Region, while evapotranspiration and number of water and temperature stress days account for 97% of the future yield in the Northeastern Region. The midsummer drought (canicula) in the Pacific Region is expected to be more intense and will reduce above‐ground biomass by 5%–13% (0.5–1.7 Mg/ha) in July–August. Harvest may be advanced by 1–2 months in the two regions to achieve increases in yield and avoid early flowering that could cause sucrose loss of 0.49 Mg ha−1 month−1. Integrating the simulation of pest and diseases under climate change in crop modelling may help fine‐tune yield forecasting.

High Sowing Densities in Rainfed Common Beans (Phaseolus vulgaris L.) in Mexican Semi-Arid Highlands under Future Climate Change

“…After the ALMANACMEX model had been parameterized and evaluated, the model was re-run using the climate scenarios while keeping constant the sowing methods and management conditions for SR, 3R, and 6R and the soil type of each site. A similar approach has been used in other climate impact studies [40][41][42].…”

Evaluación exploratoria del cultivo de la caña de azúcar (Saccharum spp.): Enfoque del paisaje del desempeño

“…Considerando la descripción anterior resaltan tres hechos; primero, México es autosuficiente en azúcar, lo cual es señalado también en otras investigaciones (Baez-Gonzalez et al, 2018); segundo, el notorio crecimiento de las exportaciones de azúcar coloca a México como un caso de éxito, aprovechando su capacidad productiva y posicionamiento geográfico (Figueroa-Rodríguez et al, 2015); finalmente, como en otros países la demanda de azúcar en México muestra una clara tendencia a la baja debido en parte por tasas de crecimiento poblacional decrecientes, así como por una mayor conciencia de evitar el exceso de consumo de azúcar, el cual está altamente relacionado con problemas de salud (sobrepeso, obesidad, diabetes) (OECD/FAO, 2018).…”

“…Los resultados de la evaluación del desempeño de paisaje en este estudio son similares respecto a la obtención de valores estadísticos a nivel municipal y estatal con el propósito de comparar sitios, tecnología y entornos (Baez-Gonzalez et al, 2018;Maitah et al, 2013;Marin, Martha, Cassman, & Grassini, 2016). Este trabajo de investigación permite la visualización del desempeño del paisaje a escala municipal, con lo cual se ayuda al tomador de decisiones sobre qué áreas deben ser priorizadas Figura 2.…”

“…está presente en 130 países distribuidos en zonas tropicales y subtropicales entre los paralelos 35° norte y sur. En 2017, México fue el sexto productor de caña de azúcar (56.9 millones de toneladas -Tg) y también el sexto exportador de azúcar a nivel mundial (723.9 millones de US dólares) con una balanza comercial superavitaria de 671.1 millones de US dólares (Baez-Gonzalez et al, 2018;FAO, 2019). A nivel nacional, la caña de azúcar tuvo una importante participación en la producción agrícola, ocupando 772 mil hectáreas (3.7% de la superficie agrícola nacional) y un VP de 38 412 millones de pesos (6.5% del valor agrícola nacional).…”

New APSIM-Sugar features and parameters required to account for high sugarcane yields in tropical environments

“…The uncertainty about the RGP effect on sugarcane simulations is also valid for climate change studies performed in Brazil (Carvalho et al, 2015;Jaiswal et al, 2017;Marin et al, 2013;Singels et al, 2014) and around the world (Baez-Gonzalez et al, 2018;Cheeroo-Nayamuth and Nayamuth, 2012;Knox et al, 2010;Ruan et al, 2018;Singels et al, 2014), where the majority of these studies suggested an increment in sugarcane yields, which can be exaggerated without considering the discussed crop constraint. As far as we know, climate change impacts assessed in Australian sugarcane regions performed by Biggs et al (2013) and Everingham et al (2015) were the only studies that considered lodging as one of the causes of RGP explicitly in the crop model simulations.…”