Potential output growth in several industrialised countries a comparison

Cahn, Christophe; Saint-Guilhem, Arthur

doi:10.1007/s00181-009-0298-2

Cited by 17 publications

(17 citation statements)

References 21 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Unclassified

Order By: Relevance

“…A number of workers in central banks, such as the Federal Reserve, the Bank of Canada and the Banque de France, have been interested in projecting long run (potential) output (see e.g. Cahn and Saint-Guilhem (2006)). The method I propose here is closest to that of Stiroh (2004) and(2007), who make projections for the U.S., though mine is more explicitly based on a growth model.…”

Section: The Approachmentioning

confidence: 99%

Long term implications of the ICT revolution: Applying the lessons of growth theory and growth accounting

Oulton

2012

Economic Modelling

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

How big a boost to long run growth can countries expect from the ICT revolution? I use the results of growth accounting and the insights from a two-sector growth model to answer this question. The use of a two-sector rather than a one-sector model is required because of the very rapid rate at which the prices of ICT products have fallen in the past and are expected to fall in the future. According to the two-sector model, the main boost to growth comes from ICT use, not ICT production. Even a country which has zero ICT production can benefit via improving terms of trade. In the long run, the falling relative price of ICT products boosts the growth of GDP and consumption by inducing faster accumulation of ICT capital. I quantify this effect on the long run growth rate of 15 European and 4 non-European countries, using data from the EU KLEMS database. The ICT intensity of production (the ICT income share) is much lower in many European countries than it is in the United States or Sweden. Nevertheless the contribution to the long run growth of labour productivity stemming from even the current levels of ICT intensity is substantial: about half a percent per annum on average in the countries studied here. Eventually, the ICT revolution may diffuse more widely so ICT intensity may reach at least the same level as currently in the U.S. or Sweden, which would add a further 0.2 percentage points per annum to long run growth.

show abstract

Section: The Approachmentioning

confidence: 99%

Long term implications of the ICT revolution: Applying the lessons of growth theory and growth accounting

Oulton

2012

Economic Modelling

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Economy-wide production technology is represented by a Cobb-Douglas-like production function with a constant return to scale on labour and capital. As described in Cahn and Saint-Guilhem (2010), the production function can be expressed analytically as…”

Section: Tfp Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In this section, we extend a reduced-form equation developed by Cahn and Saint-Guilhem (2010) to measure the cost of the recent financial crisis in terms of potential euro area TFP. Economy-wide production technology is represented by a Cobb-Douglas-like production function with a constant return to scale on labour and capital.…”

Section: Tfp Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing the losses in euro area potential productivity due to the financial crisis

et al. 2014

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

In this article, we show that the recent financial crisis has significantly affected the potential total factor productivity (TFP) of the four largest euro area economies, as well as that of the rest of the euro area. We used a reduced-form equation of TFP, based on an approach recently developed by Cahn and Saint-Guilhem (2010). Our empirical findings show that the permanent impact on potential TFP varies across countries from -3.9 points to -1.3 points in Q2 2012. When these losses are incorporated, TFP gaps develop closely in line with capacity utilization rates (CUR). Moreover, in the case of France, including CUR in our TFP model improves the quasi-real-time reliability of TFP gap estimates.

show abstract

“…The most commonly used databases are those of Maury and Pluyaud (2004) [2], Cahn and Saint-Guilhem (2006) [3] and Kocoglu (2001) [4], which we respectively denote by (a), (b) and (c) in what follows.…”

Section: Data Sourcesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…(1, 2)) 3 . At the time, Japan and France had a much larger proportion of their labour force working in agriculture, as compared with the other two countries.…”

Section: …Over the Entire Periodmentioning

confidence: 99%

Comparing Labour and Total Factor Productivity Growth and Level in France, Japan, the United Kingdom and the United States over the Past Century and in Recent Years §

Cette¹,

Kocoglu²,

Mairesse³

2009

TOECONSJ

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Abstract:The present study contributes to the analysis of economic growth by comparing labour ant total factor productivity (TFP) in France, Japan, the United Kingdom and the United States in the very long run (since 1890) and in the medium run (since 1980). During the past century, the United States has overtaken the United Kingdom and became the leading world economy. During the last 25 years, productivity growth has also known contrasted developments in the four countries, in particular as a result of an unequal growth of information and communication technology (ICT) investments.The past 120 years have been characterised by: (i) rapid economic growth and large productivity gains in the four countries; (ii) a decline in productivity in the United Kingdom relative to the United States, and to a lesser extent also relative to France and Japan until the second world war (WW2), and its subsequent come-back; (iii) the remarkable catching-up of the United States by France and Japan after WW2, which was however interrupted in the case of Japan during the 1990s. The contribution of capital deepening -as it can be measured-accounts for a large share of these different performances, with an increasing share of ICT capital in the last 25 years. This contribution varies considerably over time and across the four countries, and it is always less important, except in Japan, than that of the unmeasured factors underlying TFP, such as labour skills, technical and organisational changes and knowledge spillovers.Most recently (in 2006), before the current world crisis, hourly labour productivity levels are slightly higher in France than in the United States, and significantly lower in the United Kingdom (by roughly 10%) and even more in Japan (30%), while TFP levels are very close in France, the United Kingdom and the United States, but much lower (40%) in Japan.JEL Classification: O47, O57, E22, J24, N10.

show abstract

Potential output growth in several industrialised countries a comparison

Abstract: 4Non-technical summary 5

Cited by 17 publications

References 21 publications

Long term implications of the ICT revolution: Applying the lessons of growth theory and growth accounting

Long term implications of the ICT revolution: Applying the lessons of growth theory and growth accounting

Assessing the losses in euro area potential productivity due to the financial crisis

Comparing Labour and Total Factor Productivity Growth and Level in France, Japan, the United Kingdom and the United States over the Past Century and in Recent Years §

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About