Potential risks and challenges of climate change in the arid region of northwestern China

Chen, Yaning; Zhang, Xueqi; Fang, Gonghuan; Li, Bingbing; Wang, Fei; Qin, Jingxiu; Sun, Fan

doi:10.1016/j.regsus.2020.06.003

Cited by 50 publications

(36 citation statements)

References 41 publications

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“…Previous studies have highlighted a strong positive relationship between the air temperature and the glacier runoff and have confirmed that glaciers are natural indicators of air temperature changes [45,46]. Therefore, alterations in glacier and glacier-fed streams should be quantified in a timely manner, as they have strong implications for water resources in arid regions under warming [47,48]. The analysis of the average monthly values of the air temperature, precipitation, and runoff showed that the air temperature has an insignificant upward trend, precipitation shows an insignificant downward trend, and glacially recharged runoff shows a slight overall decrease.…”

Section: Responses Of Glacier Runoff To Climate Changesmentioning

confidence: 96%

Prediction of Glacially Derived Runoff in the Muzati River Watershed Based on the PSO-LSTM Model

Yang

Maihemuti

Simayi

et al. 2022

Water

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The simulation and prediction of glacially derived runoff are significant for water resource management and sustainable development in water-stressed arid regions. However, the application of a hydrological model in such regions is typically limited by the intricate runoff production mechanism, which is associated with snow and ice melting, and sparse monitoring data over glacierized headwaters. To address these limitations, this study develops a set of mathematical models with a certain physical significance and an efficient particle swarm optimization algorithm by applying long- and short-term memory networks on the glacierized Muzati River basin. First, the trends in the runoff, precipitation, and air temperature are analyzed from 1990 to 2015, and differences in their correlations in this period are exposed. Then, Particle Swarm Optimization–Long Short-Term Memory (PSO-LSTM) and Bi-directional Long Short-Term Memory (BiLSTM) models are combined and applied to the precipitation and air temperature data to predict the glacially derived runoff. The prediction accuracy is validated by the observed runoff at the river outlet at the Pochengzi hydrological station. Finally, two other types of models, the RF (Random Forest) and LSTM (Long Short-Term Memory) models, are constructed to verify the prediction results. The results indicate that the glacially derived runoff is strongly correlated with air temperature and precipitation. However, in the study region over the past 26 years, the air temperature was not obviously increasing, and the precipitation and glacially derived runoff were significantly decreasing. The test results show that the PSO-LSTM and BiLSTM runoff prediction models perform better than the RF and LSTM models in the glacierized Muzati River basin. In the validation period, among all models, the PSO-LSTM model has the smallest mean absolute error and root-mean-square error and the largest coefficient of determination of 6.082, 8.034, and 0.973, respectively. It is followed by the BiLSTM model having a mean absolute error, root-mean-square error, and coefficient of determination of 6.751, 9.083, and 0.972, respectively. These results imply that both the particle swarm optimization algorithm and the bi-directional structure can effectively enhance the prediction accuracy of the baseline LSTM model. The results presented in this study can provide a deeper understanding and a more appropriate method of predicting the glacially derived runoff in glacier-fed river basins.

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Section: Responses Of Glacier Runoff To Climate Changesmentioning

confidence: 96%

Prediction of Glacially Derived Runoff in the Muzati River Watershed Based on the PSO-LSTM Model

Yang

Maihemuti

Simayi

et al. 2022

Water

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“…The critical value of ecological water demand in arid areas and the relationship between natural vegetation and groundwater are also studied through experiments [8][9][10]. The development and utilization of water resources in arid regions of Northwest China are expounded from the levels and zones of river hydrology and ecosystem [11][12]. Heihe River Basin in Northwest China has the most extended history, the most profound depth and the most investment in the study of human development of water resources and its impact on local ecology in arid areas which suffers severe ecological problems [13][14][15].…”

Section: Zhang Et Almentioning

confidence: 99%

Soil moisture variations of wetland at different altitudes in desert regions, China

Zhang¹,

Sun²,

Fei³

et al. 2022

IJEAB

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Desert wetland is a special ecological environment as water is fundamental to maintaining existence. The soil water of sandy wetland links surficial water and groundwater. This study Takes Habahu National Wetland Nature Reserve as the research area and the water movement characteristics of soil profile as the research purpose. According to the altitude and topographic characteristics, the main focus is monitoring soil moisture in different layers at specific sites. The results show that: (1) In the core area of sandy wetland, the water movement of the soil profile is slow with lower infiltration and evaporation; (2) On the slopes around the wetland, the surface water is recharged by rapid leakage along with the underlying impermeable layer after precipitation due to the sand coverage; (3) In the desert hinterland outside the wetland, the water rapidly infiltrates after precipitation and flows into different groundwater systems along the structural characteristics of the underlying stratum to supplement the nearby wetlands. Based on these characteristics, we put forward the unique viewpoints of environmental protection in sandy wetlands: (1) focus on the protection of surface organisms in the core area of sandy wetland to reduce evaporation and improvethe soil water-holding capacity; (2) Appropriate engineering and biological measures should be applied to the slope outside the core area to reduce surface evaporation and plant transpiration and improve the soil moisture; (3) In the periphery area of the wetland, infiltration should be promoted to ensure the source of water supply to wetlands, which would maintain the existence of wetlands and give full play to their ecological functions. In addition, this study analyzed the relationship between soil moisture and plant diversity of 35 species. 16 plants are considered to be suitable for planting in core area of sandy wetland and 9 plants for planting in the desert hinterland outside the wetland.

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“…Currently, additional meltwater from shrinking glaciers adds to precipitation and seasonal snowmelt. If there are no additional water sources, for example from increasing precipitation, to compensate for the diminishing supply of water from heavily reduced glacier area and volume, the result may be reduced runoff (Shahgedanova et al ., 2020; Chen et al ., 2020; Zhang et al , 2020; Sorg et al ., 2012). This may have dramatic ecological consequences such as further shrinkage of the Aral Sea (Waltham and Sholji, 2001), the drying out of parts of the lower Tarim River (Duethmann et al ., 2015), and severe socio‐ecological water crises in various parts of Central Asia (Bernauer and Siegfried, 2012).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Variability of the precipitation over the Tianshan Mountains, Central Asia. Part I: Linear and nonlinear trends of the annual and seasonal precipitation

Guan

Yao

Schneider

2021

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Potential risks and challenges of climate change in the arid region of northwestern China

Cited by 50 publications

References 41 publications

Prediction of Glacially Derived Runoff in the Muzati River Watershed Based on the PSO-LSTM Model

Prediction of Glacially Derived Runoff in the Muzati River Watershed Based on the PSO-LSTM Model

Soil moisture variations of wetland at different altitudes in desert regions, China

Variability of the precipitation over the Tianshan Mountains, Central Asia. Part I: Linear and nonlinear trends of the annual and seasonal precipitation

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