Power System Reliability Importance Measures

Čepin, Marko; Demin,; Danilov, M. I.; Romanenko, I.I.; Afanasyev, V. V.

doi:10.3850/978-981-11-2724-3_0156-cd

Cited by 3 publications

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“…Even though the study is useful to system operators in power utility companies in South Africa, the study did not consider extreme peak load forecasting. The extreme peaks could be useful in assessing the power reliability in South Africa, as indicated by [25]. The study by [26] used the peak-over-threshold (POT) model for modelling extreme peak electricity demand during a heatwave.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Prediction of Extreme Conditional Quantiles of Electricity Demand: An Application Using South African Data

2021

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It is important to predict extreme electricity demand in power utilities as the uncertainties in the future of electricity demand distribution have to be taken into consideration to achieve the desired goals. The study focused on the prediction of extremely high conditional quantiles (between 0.95 and 0.9999) and extremely low quantiles (between 0.001 and 0.05) of electricity demand using South African data. The paper discusses a comparative analysis of the additive quantile regression model with an extremal mixture model and a nonlinear quantile regression model. The estimated quantiles at each level were then combined using the median approach. The comparisons were carried out using daily peak electricity demand data ranging from January 1997 to May 2014. Proper scoring rules were used to compare the three models, and the model with the smallest score was preferred. The results could be useful to system operators including decision-makers in power utility companies by giving insights and guidance for future electricity demand patterns. The prediction of extremely high quantiles of daily peak electricity demand could help system operators know the possible largest demand that will enable them to supply adequate electricity to consumers and shift demand to off-peak periods. The prediction of extreme conditional quantiles of daily peak electricity demand in the context of South Africa using additive quantile regression, nonlinear quantile regression, and extremal mixture models has not been performed previously to the best of our knowledge.

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Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Prediction of Extreme Conditional Quantiles of Electricity Demand: An Application Using South African Data

2021

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“…При этом отмечается возможность получения указанных векторов без использования значений сопротивлений межабонентских участков магистральной линии (МЛ), которые являются неопределенными параметрами, изменяющимися в зависимости от внешних условий (температура, влажность). Таким образом, по мнению авторов, становилось возможным нахождение (идентификация) параметров схемы замещения РЭС, что является очень важным обстоятельством, поскольку может позволить осуществлять оперативную диагностику функционального состояния сети с целью контроля ее уровня надежности [5,6] и проводить мониторинг потерь электроэнергии в режиме реального времени. В работах [7][8][9][10] рассматривается задача определения параметров схемы замещения линий сети с использованием векторов токов и напряжений в РЭС, получаемых от устройств PMU (Phasor Measurement Unit), которые осуществляют синхронные векторные измерения [11,12].…”

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On Determination of Current and Voltage Vectors in the Distribution Network According to AIMS EMA

2019

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On the Possibility of Calculating of the Wires Complex Impedances and the Repeat Grounding Connections Resistances in the Distribution Network 380 V According to the Accounting System Data

Danilov

Romanenko

Berezhnoy

2021

2021 International Conference on Industrial Engineering, Applications and Manufacturing (ICIEAM)

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Power System Reliability Importance Measures

Cited by 3 publications

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Prediction of Extreme Conditional Quantiles of Electricity Demand: An Application Using South African Data

Prediction of Extreme Conditional Quantiles of Electricity Demand: An Application Using South African Data

On Determination of Current and Voltage Vectors in the Distribution Network According to AIMS EMA

On the Possibility of Calculating of the Wires Complex Impedances and the Repeat Grounding Connections Resistances in the Distribution Network 380 V According to the Accounting System Data

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