Predicting a Sustainable Timber Supply Level Considering Stability of Profits

Moriya, Tomoyuki; Tatsuhara, Satoshi

doi:10.4005/jjfs.96.109

Cited by 4 publications

(8 citation statements)

References 5 publications

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“…We used forest inventory and map data for 2010 provided by the Niigata prefectural government, contour and elevation point data provided by the Geospatial Information Authority of Japan (2012), and road data digitized from 1:5000 scale forest maps (Tatsuhara and Dobashi 2006). We also used information from interviews reported in Moriya and Tatsuhara (2014) with representatives of the forest owners' cooperative in Murakami City about the current status of forests and silvicultural operations in the study area, Niigata prefectural government about current subsidies in the prefecture, and both Sugitopia Iwafune and Niigata timber market about relevant standards and prices of logs.…”

Section: Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Yield and profit were calculated for each subcompartment under each prescription according to the methodology of Moriya and Tatsuhara (2014), as summarized below. ArcGIS 9.3.1 was used as GIS software to obtain spatial information.…”

Section: Predicting Yield and Calculating Profitmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…It dramatically increased the areal proportions of harvested stands (Figure 3), especially the areal proportion of harvested site class 3 stands (Figure 4). According to findings by Moriya and Tatsuhara (2014) subcompartments covering 78% of the total study area could be harvested with net profits at ages up to 120 years, and almost all of these stands were assigned to harvesting prescriptions when a harvest restraint period was set. These results suggest that it shifted some marginally profitable stands from non-harvesting to harvesting prescriptions, thereby repressing any enhancement of profit per unit harvest volume.…”

Section: Effect Of Harvest Restraint Periodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In a further refinement, Moriya and Tatsuhara (2014) predicted maximum sustainable timber supply levels from a district considering the profitability of timber production and reductions of profit fluctuations over a planning horizon. However, they assumed that harvests could be rapidly doubled to maximum levels, which may not be realistic because of the accompanying need for rapid expansion of both timber production and wood processing capacities.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Age class distribution, in 10-year classes, of the studied stands at the beginning of the planning horizon.Note: Taken fromMoriya and Tatsuhara (2014).…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

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Effects of harvest restraint periods and fluctuation tolerances of profits and harvests on sustainable timber supply levels from private forests in a district

Moriya

Tatsuhara

2017

Forest Science and Technology

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Section: Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Predicting Yield and Calculating Profitmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Effect Of Harvest Restraint Periodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Age class distribution, in 10-year classes, of the studied stands at the beginning of the planning horizon.Note: Taken fromMoriya and Tatsuhara (2014).…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

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Effects of harvest restraint periods and fluctuation tolerances of profits and harvests on sustainable timber supply levels from private forests in a district

Moriya

Tatsuhara

2017

Forest Science and Technology

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Evaluation of carbon emission reduction effect of Cryptomeria japonica stand management in Yamagata Prefecture, Japan

Kamei,

Nakajima,

Tatsuhara

2024

Can. J. For. Res.

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Planted forests are in the utilisation phase in Japan, contributing to the increased use of timber and the realisation of carbon neutrality. We simulated and compared the carbon emission reduction effects of three forest management scenarios, including a no final cutting scenario at two geographical scales, in the context of a privately owned Cryptomeria japonica planted forest in Tsuruoka City, Yamagata Prefecture, Japan. We adopted two substitution approaches: the status quo approach and the dynamic approach in line with Japan’s nationally determined contribution. We used hypothetical stands over three rotation periods of 150 years at the stand level, and a harvest schedule of 120 years at the regional level. The harvesting scenarios based on the status quo substitution approach reduced carbon emissions more than the no final cutting scenario for current wood usage at the study site, although those based on the dynamic substitution approach reduced carbon emissions as much as the no final cutting scenario during the first 30 years. Sustainable timber production from forests may reduce carbon emissions as much as unharvested forests until 2050, indicating that the substitution effects of harvested wood products could have a significant impact on the climate change mitigation effect arising from timber.

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Estimating Potential Woody Biomass Supply under Sustainable Timber Production from Plantation Forests in a Snowy Mountainous Region of Japan

Tatsuhara

2020

SEEFOR

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Numerous woody biomass-powered stations for energy generation have been constructed in Japan since the Feed-in Tariff Scheme was introduced. However, a stable, long-term woody biomass supply from plantation forests is necessary for the construction and operation of such power stations. The logs that are used to produce fuel chips are harvested from roundwood. Thus, the main objective of this study was to estimate the potential supply of woody biomass resources under the condition of maximum sustainable harvesting from privately-owned plantation forests. Another aim was to examine the stability of sustainable harvest volumes from periodical changes. The study focused on privately-owned forests in the Sampoku district of Murakami City in the northernmost part of Niigata Prefecture, Japan. Trees in the studied region are commonly bent during periods of high snowfall, and the current bucking strategy – influenced by the construction of a biomass-powered generation facility – was integrated into the model. The revenues and costs of plantation management and timber production were calculated based on stands’ geographical attributes using a geographic information system. A mixed integer programming model was used to predict the maximum sustainable harvest levels that would provide stable profits. The simulation showed that even though the trees had a unimodal age class distribution, sustainable harvest volumes ensured a sustainable supply of woody biomass over various rotation ages. Extending the range of rotation ages by 20 years dramatically increased the potential supply of woody biomass resources. Fluctuations in each woody biomass resources were mostly less than 20% over the planning horizon. The presented research could be useful to regional forest resource managers and stakeholders involved in biomass-powered energy generation or the purchasing of woody biomass.

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Predicting a Sustainable Timber Supply Level Considering Stability of Profits

Cited by 4 publications

References 5 publications

Effects of harvest restraint periods and fluctuation tolerances of profits and harvests on sustainable timber supply levels from private forests in a district

Effects of harvest restraint periods and fluctuation tolerances of profits and harvests on sustainable timber supply levels from private forests in a district

Evaluation of carbon emission reduction effect of Cryptomeria japonica stand management in Yamagata Prefecture, Japan

Estimating Potential Woody Biomass Supply under Sustainable Timber Production from Plantation Forests in a Snowy Mountainous Region of Japan

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