Predicting Basketball Shot Outcome From Visuomotor Control Data Using Explainable Machine Learning

Abstract

Quiet eye (QE), the visual fixation on a target before initiation of a critical action, is associated with improved performance. While QE is trainable, it is unclear whether QE can directly predict performance, which has implications for training interventions. This study predicted basketball shot outcome (make or miss) from visuomotor control variables using a decision tree classification approach. Twelve basketball athletes completed 200 shots from six on-court locations while wearing mobile eye-tracking glasses. Training and testing data sets were used for modeling eight predictors (shot location, arm extension time, and absolute and relative QE onset, offset, and duration) via standard and conditional inference decision trees and random forests. On average, the trees predicted over 66% of makes and over 50% of misses. The main predictor, relative QE duration, indicated success for durations over 18.4% (range: 14.5%–22.0%). Training to prolong QE duration beyond 18% may enhance shot success.