2019
DOI: 10.20955/wp.2019.037
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Predicting Benchmarked US State Employment Data in Real Time

Abstract: US payroll employment data come from a survey and are subject to revisions. While revisions are generally small at the national level, they can be large enough at the state level to alter assessments of current economic conditions. Users must therefore exercise caution in interpreting state employment data until they are "benchmarked" against administrative data 5-16 months after the reference period. This paper develops a state-space model that predicts benchmarked state employment data in real time. The mode… Show more

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