Predicting carnivore distribution and extirpation rate based on human impacts and productivity factors; assessment of the state of jaguar (Panthera onca) in Venezuela

Jędrzejewski, Włodzimierz; Boede, Ernesto O; Abarca, María; Sánchez-Mercado, Ada; R., Ferrer-Paris José; Lampo, Margarita; Velásquez, Grisel; Carreño, Rafael; Viloria, Ángel L.; Hoogesteijn, Rafael; Robinson, Hugh S.; Stachowicz, Izabela; Cerda, Hugo; Weisz, María del Mar; Barros, Tito R.; Rivas, Gilson A.; Borges, Gilberto; Molinari, Jesús; Lew, Daniel Pablo; Takiff, Howard; Schmidt, Krzysztof

doi:10.1016/j.biocon.2016.09.027

Cited by 25 publications

(29 citation statements)

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“…We additionally adjusted it for 15 recently published jaguar records from Mexico, the USA, and Brazil ( Fig 1 , S1 Data ); hereafter this updated and adjusted range is referred to as current jaguar range. Second, we used data from field surveys, including camera trapping, track records, and interviews with hunters and cattle ranchers conducted across Venezuela between 2009 and 2015 (1,238 presence and 540 absence points [ 14 ]). Third, we included as presence points the locations of studies of jaguar densities based on camera trapping conducted in South and North America between 2002 and 2014 (72 points with non-zero values, all inside the current jaguar range, Fig 1 , S1 Table ).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Finally, because of the large disparity between the number of presence locations and absence locations, we randomly generated 1000 additional absence points within a buffer of 200 km outside current jaguar range ( Fig 1 ). We reduced densely distributed points, leaving only one if the distance between neighbouring points was less than 5 km to decrease the level of spatial autocorrelation [ 14 ], [ 48 ]. In total, we used 1,694 presence and 1,683 absence points ( Fig 1 , S1 Data ).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…We assumed that variation in potential density in carnivore populations results from the strong dependence of home range sizes on productivity factors and this relationship is strong even in highly human impacted conditions [ 61 – 63 ]. Probability of occurrence depends on both environmental conditions and human impacts [ 14 ] and it reflects the occupancy of potential territories. By multiplying the two models together, a cell with high human impact, and therefore low probability of occurrence, would contribute little to the total population estimate, even in an area with high potential density value.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…They can help to estimate current species range, identify factors determining species distribution, and indicate ecological corridors [ 10 ], [ 11 ]. Various distribution models for large carnivores have been proposed recently, most indicating that the probability of carnivore occurrence may depend on environmental conditions but also increasingly on various human impacts [ 12 ]–[ 14 ]. Unlike distribution, variation in large carnivore density has not been widely analysed due to a scarcity of adequate data.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Estimating large carnivore populations at global scale based on spatial predictions of density and distribution – Application to the jaguar (Panthera onca)

et al. 2018

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Broad scale population estimates of declining species are desired for conservation efforts. However, for many secretive species including large carnivores, such estimates are often difficult. Based on published density estimates obtained through camera trapping, presence/absence data, and globally available predictive variables derived from satellite imagery, we modelled density and occurrence of a large carnivore, the jaguar, across the species’ entire range. We then combined these models in a hierarchical framework to estimate the total population. Our models indicate that potential jaguar density is best predicted by measures of primary productivity, with the highest densities in the most productive tropical habitats and a clear declining gradient with distance from the equator. Jaguar distribution, in contrast, is determined by the combined effects of human impacts and environmental factors: probability of jaguar occurrence increased with forest cover, mean temperature, and annual precipitation and declined with increases in human foot print index and human density. Probability of occurrence was also significantly higher for protected areas than outside of them. We estimated the world’s jaguar population at 173,000 (95% CI: 138,000–208,000) individuals, mostly concentrated in the Amazon Basin; elsewhere, populations tend to be small and fragmented. The high number of jaguars results from the large total area still occupied (almost 9 million km2) and low human densities (< 1 person/km2) coinciding with high primary productivity in the core area of jaguar range. Our results show the importance of protected areas for jaguar persistence. We conclude that combining modelling of density and distribution can reveal ecological patterns and processes at global scales, can provide robust estimates for use in species assessments, and can guide broad-scale conservation actions.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Estimating large carnivore populations at global scale based on spatial predictions of density and distribution – Application to the jaguar (Panthera onca)

et al. 2018

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“…The jaguar (Panthera onca) is an iconic and highly valued species in conservation programs in the Neotropics (García et al 2012). ZPBN is an important refuge area within the Maracaibo lake basin, given the high probability of occurrence and the low probability of extinction estimated (Jędrzejewski et al 2017). However, jaguars were Table 3.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Interannual and daily activity patterns of mid-sized mammals in Maracaibo Lake Basin, Venezuela

Morán

Garcia

Ferrebuz

et al. 2018

Therya

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Despite its biogeographic importance, the mammals of Maracaibo lake basin have been poorly studied. The objectives of this study were to: 1) provide a list of the mammal species detected by combining information from camera traps and other sources, and 2) describe diurnal and annual activity patterns for some of the species detected. Camera-trapping was carried out for one year in five localities within the Burro Negro Protection Zone (Spanish acronym ZPBN). Records of terrestrial mammals (excluding Chiroptera) were compiled from: 1) direct and indirect opportunistic records during field visits, 2) informal interviews with local inhabitants, 3) three national natural history collections, and 4) scientific literature. The complementarity between sources, similarity with other localities within the region, and temporal changes in composition were evaluated with the Sørensen Similarity Index (RS), and annual differences in the number of detections per sampling effort were evaluated using a X 2 test. Sampling effort was 1,799 camera days, resulting in 569 events of mammal detection recorded and 20 species from 17 families in 9 orders identified. Four species (Dasypus novemcinctus, Dasyprocta leporina, Cerdocyon thous and Leopardus pardalis) were captured all year round. Camera traps detected half of the non-flying mammal species in the area, including five that had not been previously reported by other sources (Cuniculus paca, Coendou prehensilis, Sylvilagus floridanus, Procyon cancrivorus and Puma yagouaroundi). At least three species (Panthera onca, Odocoileus virginianus, and Hydrochoerus hydrochaeris) had been reported as historically abundant, but were not detected during the year of camera trapping, which could be due to recent declines in their populations. Camera trapping provides reliable records on the presence of four species with data gaps in their distribution ranges (Myrmecophaga tetradactyla, Coendou prehensilis, Cerdocyon thous and Procyon cancrivorus), as well as baseline data for evaluating the distribution overlap between pairs of species, such as Tamandua mexicana and T. tetradactyla, and Dasyprocta leporina and D. punctata. A higher species richness was observed between June and August, in the rainy season. A pesar de su importancia biogeográfica, la mastofauna de la cuenca del Maracaibo sólo se conoce parcialmente. Los objetivos del presente trabajo eran: 1) elaborar una lista de especies de mamíferos terrestres combinando el fototrampeo con otras fuentes de información, y 2) describir patrones de actividad diarios y anuales para algunas de las especies detectadas. Se realizó fototrampeo durante un año en cinco localidades dentro de la Zona Protectora de Burro Negro (ZPBN). Se compilaron registros de presencia de mamíferos terrestres (excluyendo quirópteros) de: 1) muestreos no sistemáticos de indicios indirectos y directos, 2) entrevistas informales a habitantes locales, 3) tres colecciones zoológicas nacionales, y 4) literatura científica. Se evaluó la complementariedad entre fuentes, similitu...

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Reducing persecution is more effective for restoring large carnivores than restoring their prey

Bleyhl

Ghoddousi

Askerov

et al. 2021

Ecological Applications

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Large carnivores are currently disappearing from many world regions because of habitat loss, prey depletion, and persecution. Ensuring large carnivore persistence requires safeguarding and sometimes facilitating the expansion of their populations. Understanding which conservation strategies, such as reducing persecution or restoring prey, are most effective to help carnivores to reclaim their former ranges is therefore important. Here, we systematically explored such alternative strategies for the endangered Persian leopard (Panthera pardus saxicolor) in the Caucasus. We combined a rule‐based habitat suitability map and a spatially explicit leopard population model to identify potential leopard subpopulations (i.e., breeding patches), and to test the effect of different levels of persecution reduction and prey restoration on leopard population viability across the entire Caucasus ecoregion and northern Iran (about 737,000 km2). We identified substantial areas of potentially suitable leopard habitat (~120,000 km2), most of which is currently unoccupied. Our model revealed that leopards could potentially recolonize these patches and increase to a population of >1,000 individuals in 100 yr, but only in scenarios of medium to high persecution reduction and prey restoration. Overall, reducing persecution had a more pronounced effect on leopard metapopulation viability than prey restoration: Without conservation strategies to reduce persecution, leopards went extinct from the Caucasus in all scenarios tested. Our study highlights the importance of persecution reduction in small populations, which should hence be prioritized when resources for conservation are limited. We show how individual‐based, spatially explicit metapopulation models can help in quantifying the recolonization potential of large carnivores in unoccupied habitat, designing adequate conservation strategies to foster such recolonizations, and anticipating the long‐term prospects of carnivore populations under alternative scenarios. Our study also outlines how data scarcity, which is typical for threatened range‐expanding species, can be overcome with a rule‐based habitat map. For Persian leopards, our projections clearly suggest that there is a large potential for a viable metapopulation in the Caucasus, but only if major conservation actions are taken towards reducing persecution and restoring prey.

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Predicting carnivore distribution and extirpation rate based on human impacts and productivity factors; assessment of the state of jaguar (Panthera onca) in Venezuela

Cited by 25 publications

References 40 publications

Estimating large carnivore populations at global scale based on spatial predictions of density and distribution – Application to the jaguar (Panthera onca)

Estimating large carnivore populations at global scale based on spatial predictions of density and distribution – Application to the jaguar (Panthera onca)

Interannual and daily activity patterns of mid-sized mammals in Maracaibo Lake Basin, Venezuela

Reducing persecution is more effective for restoring large carnivores than restoring their prey

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