Predicting Climate Change Impact on the Habitat Suitability of <em>Schistosoma</em> Intermediate Host <em>Oncomelania Hupensis </em>in the Yangtze River Economic Belt of China Using MaxEnt

Abstract

Oncomelania Hupensis is the exclusive intermediary host of Schistosoma japonicum in China. The alteration of its habitat and population distribution directly affects the safety of millions of individuals residing in the Yangtze River Economic Belt (YREB), and the ecological stability. Therefore, it is crucial to analyse the influence of climate change on the distribution of O. Hupensis in order to achieve accurate control over its population. This study utilised the MaxENT model to forecast possible snail habitats by utilising snail distribution data obtained from historical literature. The subsequent outcomes were achieved: The primary ecological factors influencing the distribution of O. Hupensis are elevation, minimum temperature of coldest month, and precipitation of wettest month; Furthermore, future climate scenarios indicate a decrease in the distribution area and a northward shift of the distribution centre for O. hupensis; Specifically, those in the upstream will move northeast, while those in the midstream and downstream will move northwest; These changes in suitable habitat area, the average migration distance of distribution centers across different climate scenarios, time periods, and sub-basins within the YREB, resulting in uncertainty. This study offers theoretical justification for the prevention and control of O. hupensis along the YREB.