Predicting future frost damage risk of kiwifruit in Korea under climate change using an integrated modelling approach

Abstract

As the climate changes, increasing variations in environmental factors directly influence crop cultivation at different magnitudes over a broad range of local communities worldwide. As a result, there is an urgent need to develop local impact assessments and adaptation strategies for use at local, rather than national or global, levels. In this study, we predicted the future frost damage of kiwifruit in the Jeonnam province, Korea, as a case study for the local impact assessment of climate change. This study included a series of models that integrated both the biological responses of plants and the physical influences of climatic factors. First, potential changes in the suitable area for kiwifruit cultivation under a changing climate were simulated using downscaled high resolution (1 km) climate data. Through the development of a frost‐forecasting model and linking it to a kiwifruit phenology model, we also assessed the interaction of plant and climatic factors. Because of the warming climate, the last frost date in spring occurred 13.7 days earlier in average under climate change. Nevertheless, the potential risk of spring frost damage of kiwifruit continued to exist at a similar magnitude in the future. Additional study at the county level indicated that the date of bud burst is advancing even faster than the last frost date (approximately 1 day per every decade), resulting in the increasing risk of spring frost damage for kiwifruit through 2100. In this study, the local impacts of climate change on kiwifruit frost damage were assessed using the integrated modelling approach. As such, local policy makers and stakeholders will be able to prepare more realistic adaptation strategies to cope with upcoming threats in a changing climate.

An Integrated Modeling Approach for Predicting Potential Epidemics of Bacterial Blossom Blight in Kiwifruit under Climate Change

“…To calculate the five bioclimatic conditions, daily minimum and maximum temperature and daily precipitation data are used. Details on the conditions of each bioclimatic variable, the suitability algorithm, and its validity can be found in Jeong et al (2018). Areas that were predicted to be “Highly suitable” or “Suitable” for kiwifruit cultivation in the historical and future periods were subjected to further model simulations as described below.…”

Increasing risks of apple tree frost damage under climate change

“…For fruit trees in Switzerland, confirm that the change in risk varies regionally arguing that it has only increased in higher elevations. Jeong et al (2018) project that the risk of frost damages on kiwi fruits in Korea remains mostly unchanged under global warming.…”

Frost Damage Grade Index and Risk Regionalization of the Main Cultivars of Passion Fruit in Fujian Province

“…The whole plant of the 3 seedlings froze, the leaves were all drooping, the stems were frozen and soft, and all 3 plants froze to death after 30 days 4 4 0 -4ºC, 2 h, 2 d varieties. Therefore, through literature collection [27][28][29][30], some passion fruit frost damage information was obtained, and the preliminary frost damage grade was verified through the analysis of disaster data.…”