Predicting Potential Change in Land Cover and Its Effect on the Temperature of the Land Surface: A Case Study of Khulna City Corporation, Bangladesh

Abstract

Khulna City Corporation (KCC) has undergone rapid urban development and expansion in recent times. These changes, including the change in land surface temperature (LST) throughout the area, have significant long-term effects. This research analysed the effects of land cover changes on KCC’s LST. By using the maximum likelihood classification method, Landsat imagery investigation identified the land cover chart and determined the LST for the years 1999, 2009 and 2019. It was modelled for the simulation of land cover for the year 2029 by using the classification results and applying the multi-layer perceptron Markov (MLPM) models together. It then also modelled the LST for the year 2029 by using three thematic indices and multiple regression analysis. As a result, the KCC urban area grew by 49% between 1999 and 2019. Simulation results have shown that the KCC could possibly experience a temperature range of more than or equal to 26°C in 2029 if the recent pattern persists. For KCC, the average LST for the urban area is projected to be 27°C in 2029. The scenario shown in this article will assist urban planners in quantifying the impact of various LST change-related issues and, thus, in preparing proper strategic measures.