Predicting Scientific Breakthroughs Based on Structural Dynamic of Citation Cascades

Abstract

Predicting breakthrough papers holds great significance; however, prior studies encountered challenges in this task, indicating a need for substantial improvement. We propose that the failure to capture the dynamic structural-evolutionary features of citation networks is one of the major reasons. To overcome this limitation, this paper introduces a new method for constructing citation cascades of focus papers, allowing the creation of a time-series-like set of citation cascades. Then, through a thorough review, three types of structural indicators in these citation networks that could reflect breakthroughs are identified, including certain basic topological metrics, PageRank values, and the von Neumann graph entropy. Based on the time-series-like set of citation cascades, the dynamic trajectories of these indicators are calculated and employed as predictors. Using the Nobel Prize-winning papers as a landmark dataset, our prediction method yields approximately a 7% improvement in the ROC-AUC score compared to static-based prior methods. Additionally, our method advances in achieving earlier predictions than other previous methods. The main contribution of this paper is proposing a novel method for creating citation cascades in chronological order and confirming the significance of predicting breakthroughs from a dynamic structural perspective.