Predicting suitable habitat for the endangered tree Ormosia microphylla in China

Wei, Lijuan; Wang, Guohai; Xie, Chunping; Gao, Zequn; Huang, Qinying; Jim, C. Y.

doi:10.1038/s41598-024-61200-5

Cited by 3 publications

References 53 publications

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Predicting the Potential Distribution of the Endangered Pyrethrum tatsienense in China Using an Optimized Maxent Model Under Climate Change Scenarios

Zhu,

Yang,

et al. 2024

Ecology and Evolution

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Climate change can significantly impact the ecological suitability and diversity of species. Pyrethrum tatsienense, a critically endangered species in China, requires a thorough understanding of its habitat distribution and the environmental factors that affect it in the context of climate change. The Maxent algorithm was used to examine the key factors influencing the distribution of P. tatsienense in China, using data from 127 species occurrences and environmental variables from the Last Interglacial (LIG), Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), Mid‐Holocene (MH), current, and future scenarios. The Maxent model was optimized utilizing the R package ENMeval, providing the most accurate predictions for suitable habitats across various scenarios. Results show that suitable regions for P. tatsienense encompass approximately 15.02% (14.42 × 105 km2) of China, predominantly on the Qinghai‐Tibetan Plateau. The mean UV‐B of the highest month (UVB3: 39.7%), elevation (elev: 28.7%), and the warmest season of precipitation (Bio18: 17.4%) are the major limiting factors for suitable habitat. The optimal species distribution ranges are identified as > 7500 J m−2 day−1 for UVB3, 2700–5600 m for elev, and 150–480 mm for Bio18. Predictions for the historical climate indicate the presence of refugia at the junction of Sichuan, Tibet, and Qinghai. The MH predictions show an increase in climatic suitability for P. tatsienense compared to the LIG and LGM, with an expansion of suitable areas westward. Future climate change scenarios indicate that the potential suitable habitat for P. tatsienense is expected to increase with increasing radiative forcing, with higher latitude regions becoming new marginally suitable habitats. However, predicted environmental changes in western Tibet may drive the loss of highly suitable habitats in the future. These findings enhance our understanding of how environmental factors impact the habitat suitability of P. tatsienense and provide valuable insights for developing effective management and conservation strategies for this important species.

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Predicting the Potential Distribution of the Endangered Pyrethrum tatsienense in China Using an Optimized Maxent Model Under Climate Change Scenarios

Zhu,

Yang,

et al. 2024

Ecology and Evolution

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Predicting the potential distribution of the invasive species, Ophelimus maskelli (Ashmead) (Hymenoptera: Eulophidae), and its natural enemy Closterocerus chamaeleon (Hymenoptera: Eulophidae), under current and future climate conditions

Cheng,

Niu,

Zhao

et al. 2024

Journal of Economic Entomology

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Invasive species pose a threat to ecosystems and humans worldwide, which is exacerbated by climate change, causing the expansion of species distributions. Ophelimus maskelli (Ashmead) (Hymenoptera: Eulophidae) causes leaf drying and shedding in eucalyptus trees, forming blister-like galls that negatively impact the growth of the trees. Closterocerus chamaeleon (Hymenoptera: Eulophidae) is a recognized parasitoid of O. maskelli. This study used the MaxEnt and CLIMEX models to predict the potential distribution under current and future climate scenarios for O. maskelli and its natural enemy, C. chamaeleon. The MaxEnt model result indicated that isothermality was the most critical factor predicting the distribution of O. maskelli, while the mean temperature of the driest quarter was the most critical factor predicting the distribution of C. chamaeleon. Under current climate conditions, the CLIMEX model predicted a wider potential distribution for O. maskelli and a smaller distribution for C. chamaeleon than the MaxEnt model. MaxEnt and CLIMEX prediction results indicated that South America and Africa were suitable for O. maskelli and C. chamaeleon. The MaxEnt model indicated that under SSP245 climate conditions, the potentially suitable regions for these species expanded, while under the SSP126 climate scenario, the region contracted significantly. The CLIMEX model indicated that under the A1B and A2 climate scenarios, the marginally suitable areas increased, while the moderately and highly suitable areas decreased. This study provides a theoretical basis for creating early monitoring, quarantine, and control methods for invasive pests.

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Integrating ecological niche modeling and land use analysis for targeted conservation of Elaeocarpus prunifolius in India

Iralu,

Adhikari,

Upadhaya

et al. 2024

Preprint

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Mismatch between broad spatial scales at which niche models operate vis-à-vis the finer localized scales required for conservation actions often hinder the effective translation of model outputs into actionable strategies. This study addresses this issue by integrating ecological niche modelling (ENM) with land use and land cover (LULC) analysis to improve the conservation status of a threatened tree species Elaeocarpus prunifolius in Northeast India. Using the Maximum Entropy (Maxent) model, we predicted the potential distribution of E. prunifolius using MODIS-based Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) and ASTER-based elevation data. The predicted distribution, covering 8.97% (~ 201,321 ha) of Meghalaya's total geographical area, was further refined through the overlay of LULC maps, identifying ~ 17,033 ha as highly suitable habitat. Field validation of the predicted distribution maps led to the discovery of new populations, confirming the model accuracy. This integrated approach demonstrates the effectiveness of combining ENM with LULC analysis for the precise identification of conservation sites, thereby improving the potential for successful conservation and reintroduction efforts for E. prunifolius. The study highlights the critical role of integrating predictive models with ground validation in developing informed and effective conservation strategies.

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Predicting suitable habitat for the endangered tree Ormosia microphylla in China

Cited by 3 publications

References 53 publications

Predicting the Potential Distribution of the Endangered Pyrethrum tatsienense in China Using an Optimized Maxent Model Under Climate Change Scenarios

Predicting the Potential Distribution of the Endangered Pyrethrum tatsienense in China Using an Optimized Maxent Model Under Climate Change Scenarios

Predicting the potential distribution of the invasive species, Ophelimus maskelli (Ashmead) (Hymenoptera: Eulophidae), and its natural enemy Closterocerus chamaeleon (Hymenoptera: Eulophidae), under current and future climate conditions

Integrating ecological niche modeling and land use analysis for targeted conservation of Elaeocarpus prunifolius in India

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