Predicting the anticipated emotional and behavioral responses to an avian flu outbreak

Smith, Bruce W.; Kay, Virginia S.; Hoyt, Tim; Bernard, Michael L.

doi:10.1016/j.ajic.2008.08.007

Cited by 27 publications

(29 citation statements)

References 27 publications

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“…Our findings also suggest dependencies among negative affect, perceived risk, and avoidance behavior. Previous research has shown that perceived risk is a function of negative emotion and negative emotion may lead to greater avoidance behavior . In our study, we confirmed the effects of negative affect on both risk perception and behavioral intention individually, but found that the effect of negative affect on avoidance behavior could be fully mediated by risk perception.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 86%

Cumulative Response to Sequences of Terror Attacks Varying in Frequency and Trajectory

2016

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There is a paucity of research examining public response to the cumulative effects of multiple related extreme events over time. We investigated the separate and combined effects of frequency and trajectory of terrorist attacks. A scenario simulation of a series of gas station bombings in Southern California was developed to evaluate respondents' affect, risk perception, and intended avoidance behavior using a 3 (frequency; low vs. medium vs. high) by 3 (trajectory; increasing vs. constant vs. decreasing) factorial design. For each of the nine conditions, three videos were created to simulate news broadcasts documenting the attacks over a three-week period. A total of 275 respondents were included in the analysis. Results from analysis of covariances (ANCOVAs) indicate that trajectory of the sequential attacks (increasing or decreasing in frequency) predicts negative affect, risk perception, and avoidance behavior. In contrast, frequency predicts neither negative affect, positive affect, risk perception, nor intended avoidance behavior. Results from structural equation modeling (SEM) further indicate that the effect of negative affect on behavioral intention is mediated by risk perception and the effect of trajectory on risk perception is partially mediated by negative affect. In addition, both ANCOVAs and SEM model results suggest that (1) females experience less positive affect and perceive more risk than males, (2) respondents with higher income perceive more risk, and (3) younger respondents are more likely to modify their behavior to avoid the risk of future attacks.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 86%

Cumulative Response to Sequences of Terror Attacks Varying in Frequency and Trajectory

2016

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“…( 29‐31 ) Other studies have looked at perceived risk and behavior change in response to disasters. ( 32‐34 ) In this study, each video introduced respondents to new and developing information about an escalating flu epidemic. The recording of respondent responses following each video allowed for the dynamics of reactions to be captured over the episodes.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Flu, Risks, and Videotape: Escalating Fear and Avoidance

2012

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While extensive risk perception research has focused on emotions, cognitions, and behavior at static points in time, less attention has been paid to how these variables might change over time. This study assesses how negative affect, threat beliefs, perceived risk, and intended avoidance behavior change over the course of an escalating biological disaster. A scenario simulation methodology was used that presents respondents with a video simulation of a 15-day series of local news reports to immerse respondents in the developing details of the disaster. Systemic manipulation of the virus's causal origin (terrorist attack, medical lab accident, unknown) and the respondent's proximity to the virus (local vs. opposite coast) allowed us to investigate the dynamics of public response. The unfolding scenario was presented in discrete episodes, allowing responses to be tracked over the episodes. The sample includes 600 respondents equally split by sex and by location, with half in the Washington, DC area, and half in the Los Angeles area. The results showed respondents' reactions to the flu epidemic increased as the disaster escalated. More importantly, there was considerable consistency across respondents' emotional, cognitive, and behavioral responses to the epidemic over the episodes. In addition, the reactions of respondents proximally closer to the epidemic increased more rapidly and with greater intensity than their distant counterparts. Finally, as the flu epidemic escalated, both terrorist and accidental flu releases were perceived as being less risky and were less likely to lead to avoidance behavior compared to the unknown flu release.

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“… Sources : Bults et al ., Cowling et al ., Del Valle et al ., Kok et al ., Sadique et al ., and Smith et al …”

Section: Modeling Approaches For Individual Impact Categoriesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Total Economic Consequences of an Influenza Outbreak in the United States

2016

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Pandemic influenza represents a serious threat not only to the population of the United States, but also to its economy. In this study, we analyze the total economic consequences of potential influenza outbreaks in the United States for four cases based on the distinctions between disease severity and the presence/absence of vaccinations. The analysis is based on data and parameters on influenza obtained from the Centers for Disease Control and the general literature. A state-of-the-art economic impact modeling approach, computable general equilibrium, is applied to analyze a wide range of potential impacts stemming from the outbreaks. This study examines the economic impacts from changes in medical expenditures and workforce participation, and also takes into consideration different types of avoidance behavior and resilience actions not previously fully studied. Our results indicate that, in the absence of avoidance and resilience effects, a pandemic influenza outbreak could result in a loss in U.S. GDP of $25.4 billion, but that vaccination could reduce the losses to $19.9 billion. When behavioral and resilience factors are taken into account, a pandemic influenza outbreak could result in GDP losses of $45.3 billion without vaccination and $34.4 billion with vaccination. These results indicate the importance of including a broader set of causal factors to achieve more accurate estimates of the total economic impacts of not just pandemic influenza but biothreats in general. The results also highlight a number of actionable items that government policymakers and public health officials can use to help reduce potential economic losses from the outbreaks.

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Predicting the anticipated emotional and behavioral responses to an avian flu outbreak

Abstract: Emotional responses may be important in predicting behavior after an outbreak of avian flu, and personal characteristics may predict both emotional and behavioral responses.

Cited by 27 publications

References 27 publications

Cumulative Response to Sequences of Terror Attacks Varying in Frequency and Trajectory

Cumulative Response to Sequences of Terror Attacks Varying in Frequency and Trajectory

Flu, Risks, and Videotape: Escalating Fear and Avoidance

Total Economic Consequences of an Influenza Outbreak in the United States

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