Predicting the Potential Distribution of an Invasive Species, Solenopsis invicta Buren (Hymenoptera: Formicidae), under Climate Change using Species Distribution Models

Abstract

The red imported fire ant is considered one of the most notorious invasive species because of its adverse impact on both humans and ecosystems. Public concern regarding red imported fire ants has been increasing, as they have been found seven times in South Korea. Even if red imported fire ants are not yet colonized in South Korea, a proper quarantine plan is necessary to prevent their widespread distribution. As a basis for quarantine planning, we modeled the potential distribution of the red imported fire ant under current climate conditions using six different species distribution models (SDMs) and then selected the random forest (RF) model for modeling the potential distribution under climate change. We acquired occurrence data from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF) and bioclimatic data from WorldClim. We modeled at the global scale to project the potential distribution under the current climate and then applied models at the local scale to project the potential distribution of the red imported fire ant under climate change. Modeled results successfully represent the current distribution of red imported fire ants. The potential distribution area for red imported fire ants increased to include major harbors and airports in South Korea under the climate change scenario (RCP 8.5). Thus, we are able to provide a potential distribution of red imported fire ant that is necessary to establish a proper quarantine plan for their management to minimize adverse impacts of climate change.

Nutritional Value of the Larvae of the Alien Invasive Wasp Vespa velutina nigrithorax and Amino Acid Composition of the Larval Saliva

“…In recent years, invasion of alien species has gradually increased in Korea. However, in most of the cases, the controls over the invasive species were not successful, and various damages are rapidly increasing through the nationwide spread [49][50][51][52]. However, in some cases, the control of alien species is made when the valuable utilization of the invasive species as a potential resource are discovered [53].…”

Modeling the Potential Distribution of <i>Machilus thunbergii</i> under the Climate Change Patterns in China

“…The maximum entropy modeling (MaxEnt) is widely used in the prediction of potential distribution of species in the context of climate change, environmental factor detection and risk assessment of invasive species (Adhikari et al, 2012;Yang et al, 2013;Fandohan et al, 2015;Sung et al, 2018;Chen et al, 2019), based on geographical distribution data and a variety of environmental data. Compared with other models, the MaxEnt has the advantages of less sample size, less influence by sample deviation and better accuracy (Elith et al, 2011;Kramer-Schadt et al, 2013).…”

Invader at the gate: The status of red imported fire ant in Australia and Asia

“…Wetterer () documents the spread of S. invicta from its native South America across the southern United States and north‐eastern Mexico, through the West Indies and to New Zealand, Australia and parts of Asia. Several studies have used climate modeling based principally on temperature and rainfall parameters to predict the potential global range expansion of S. invicta and concluded that many additional regions in both the New World and the Old World are at risk of colonization by this pest (Korzukhin et al 2001; Morrison et al ; Sutherst and Maywald ; Sung, Kwon, Lee, & Cho, ). Under climate change scenarios modeled by Bertelsmeier et al () the potential distribution of S. invicta is predicted to increase in all regions.…”