Predicting the potential global distribution of Leptotrombidium rubellum under current and future climate change

Abstract

Background Leptotrombidium rubellum (L. rubellum) has been proven to be a vector for the transmission of scrub typhus. But no studies have been conducted to project the global distribution of potential distribution for L. rubellum under current and future climate scenarios. To predict the future global potential distribution range of L. rubellum under various climate scenario models, analyze the major environmental factors affecting its distribution, and provide references for the transformation of passive vector surveillance into active vector surveillance. Methods The maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) was used in this study to estimate the global potential distribution range of L. rubellum under historical climate scenarios and different future climate scenarios. Collect data on the distribution of L. rubellum from database literature. Maxent 3.4.1 and R 4.1.0 were used to screen climate variables according to the contribution rate of environmental variables, knife cutting method and correlation analysis of variables. R 4.1.0 was used to calculate model regulation frequency doubling and feature combination to adjust MaxEnt parameters. Results The model results showed that the training omission rate was in good agreement with the theoretical omission rate, and the area under ROC curve (AUC) value of the model was 0.997. Among the included environmental variables, the prec7 (Precipitation in July) and elev (elevation) contributed the most to the model, providing more effective information for the distribution of L. rubellum. The potential suitable areas are distributed in Asia, Africa, South and North America. Especially China and its neighboring countries. Conclusions Under the future climate scenario model, the potential suitable areas show an expansion trend. Although there has been little change in the countries and regions that involve suitable areas, there is a trend of expansion in the range of these countries and regions. Therefore, the invasion risk of the potential suitable area of L. rubellum should be paid attention to.