Predicting the ungauged basin: model validation and realism assessment

Emmerik, Tim van; Mulder, Gert; Eilander, Dirk; Piet, Marijn; Savenije, H. H. G.

doi:10.3389/feart.2015.00062

Cited by 36 publications

(48 citation statements)

References 47 publications

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“…The representation of environmental awareness in van Emmerik et al (2014), although simple, represents one of the first attempts to study the intuitive relationship between values and norms about perceived threats to ecosystem health and changes to water management actions. Van Emmerik et al (2014) was able to model the four eras described by Kandasamy et al (2014), from an exclusive focus on agriculture to environmental restoration.…”

Section: Environmental Awarenessmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Van Emmerik et al (2014) was able to model the four eras described by Kandasamy et al (2014), from an exclusive focus on agriculture to environmental restoration. Note that other effects or characteristics of environmental degradation, such as changing water tables or salinization of the soil, were not taken into account.…”

Section: Environmental Awarenessmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Several place-based sociohydrology studies in basins dominated by agricultural development, such as the Tarim (China, Liu et al, 2014), Murrumbidgee (Australia, Elshafei et al, 2014;van Emmerik et al, 2014), and Toolibin Lake (Australia, Elshafei et al, 2015) basins, have highlighted a shift in water use behavior from an initial focus on agricultural production to an increasing emphasis on environmental conservation, a shift that has been called the pendulum swing . Similarly Chen et al (2016) showed a shift in water management from flood mitigation to wetland protection at Kissimmee river, USA.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…For example, van Emmerik et al (2014) modeled the human decision to allocate more or less water to agriculture or to the environment on the strength of a dynamic "social" state variable called environmental awareness, which reflected societal perceptions of the environmental degradation within the prevailing value systems or culture (see also Di Baldassarre et al, 2013, for awareness of floods in the context of coupled human-flood systems, and Garcia et al, 2016, for awareness of shortage for town water supply in the context of coupled human-town water supply systems). In the sociohydrological model of van Emmerik et al (2014) the human response to changing environmental awareness is captured through an appropriate constitutive relationship, chosen in a somewhat intuitive way. Hence, the parameters governing the constitutive relationship could only be obtained through calibration of the overall model and would always be challenged unless they are verified to be right for the right reasons.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This paper begins with a review of recent place-based, sociohydrological modeling studies (van Emmerik et al, 2014;Elshafei et al, 2014Elshafei et al, , 2015Chen et al, 2016;Roobavannan et al, 2017) that have incorporated changing values and norms by connecting them to measures of the states of basin economy and/or environmental health via assumed functional relationships. Next, we draw connections between extant social theory and recent SH studies that indicate how values and norms influence social behavior towards the environment.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 4 more Smart Citations

Norms and values in sociohydrological models

Roobavannan

Emmerik

Elshafei

et al. 2018

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. Sustainable water resources management relies on understanding how societies and water systems coevolve. Many place-based sociohydrology (SH) modeling studies use proxies, such as environmental degradation, to capture key elements of the social component of system dynamics. Parameters of assumed relationships between environmental degradation and the human response to it are usually obtained through calibration. Since these relationships are not yet underpinned by social-science theories, confidence in the predictive power of such place-based sociohydrologic models remains low. The generalizability of SH models therefore requires major advances in incorporating more realistic relationships, underpinned by appropriate hydrological and social-science data and theories. The latter is a critical input, since human culture -especially values and norms arising from it -influences behavior and the consequences of behaviors. This paper reviews a key social-science theory that links cultural factors to environmental decision-making, assesses how to better incorporate social-science insights to enhance SH models, and raises important questions to be addressed in moving forward. This is done in the context of recent progress in sociohydrological studies and the gaps that remain to be filled. The paper concludes with a discussion of challenges and opportunities in terms of generalization of SH models and the use of available data to allow future prediction and model transfer to ungauged basins.

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Section: Environmental Awarenessmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Environmental Awarenessmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 3 more Smart Citations

Norms and values in sociohydrological models

Roobavannan

Emmerik

Elshafei

et al. 2018

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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Flow alteration signatures of diversion hydropower: An analysis of 32 rivers in southwestern China

Kibler

Alipour

2017

Ecohydrology

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Hydrologic changes caused by diversion hydropower are poorly described. Herein, we evaluate hydrologic alteration in 32 ungauged rivers developed for diversion hydropower. We simulated long-term unregulated discharge records before perturbing flows with the hydropower diversion and comparing periods with and without diversion. We detected statistically significant changes to flow regime metrics across all rivers. Magnitudes across a range of flows consistently decreased following diversion, flow variability decreased substantially, and transitions between flows of different magnitudes became more abrupt. Magnitudes of 7-day minimum flows were lower by a mean of 41 ± 23% (p < .05 for 19 rivers), annual maximum flows decreased significantly (p < .05) in 22 rivers, and 7-day maximum flows decreased by a mean of 52 ± 18% (p < .05 for 26 rivers). Temporally dynamic low to moderate flows were replaced by static minimal flows, leading to a mean 184 ± 49% increase in flow constancy. Mean duration of events sustained below the prediversion Q 75 increased (p < .05 for 32 rivers) from a mean of 3 days to a mean of 27 days after diversion. Mean hydrograph rise and fall rates doubled and tripled, respectively (p < .05 for 28 rivers). We detected few changes to peak flow timing. Although direction of observed change was consistent among the rivers, magnitudes and significance of response often varied between rivers. A proposed diversion index largely explained response variability among the 32 rivers. Results highlight that hydropower systems without storage reservoirs can profoundly affect river flow regimes when water is diverted from the river.

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Can climate variability information constrain a hydrological model for an ungauged Costa Rican catchment?

Quesada-Montano

Westerberg

Fuentes-Andino

et al. 2018

Hydrological Processes

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Long‐term hydrological data are key to understanding catchment behaviour and for decision making within water management and planning. Given the lack of observed data in many regions worldwide, such as Central America, hydrological models are an alternative for reproducing historical streamflow series. Additional types of information—to locally observed discharge—can be used to constrain model parameter uncertainty for ungauged catchments. Given the strong influence that climatic large‐scale processes exert on streamflow variability in the Central American region, we explored the use of climate variability knowledge as process constraints to constrain the simulated discharge uncertainty for a Costa Rican catchment, assumed to be ungauged. To reduce model uncertainty, we first rejected parameter relationships that disagreed with our understanding of the system. Then, based on this reduced parameter space, we applied the climate‐based process constraints at long‐term, inter‐annual, and intra‐annual timescales. In the first step, we reduced the initial number of parameters by 52%, and then, we further reduced the number of parameters by 3% with the climate constraints. Finally, we compared the climate‐based constraints with a constraint based on global maps of low‐flow statistics. This latter constraint proved to be more restrictive than those based on climate variability (further reducing the number of parameters by 66% compared with 3%). Even so, the climate‐based constraints rejected inconsistent model simulations that were not rejected by the low‐flow statistics constraint. When taken all together, the constraints produced constrained simulation uncertainty bands, and the median simulated discharge followed the observed time series to a similar level as an optimized model. All the constraints were found useful in constraining model uncertainty for an—assumed to be—ungauged basin. This shows that our method is promising for modelling long‐term flow data for ungauged catchments on the Pacific side of Central America and that similar methods can be developed for ungauged basins in other regions where climate variability exerts a strong control on streamflow variability.

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Predicting the ungauged basin: model validation and realism assessment

Cited by 36 publications

References 47 publications

Norms and values in sociohydrological models

Norms and values in sociohydrological models

Flow alteration signatures of diversion hydropower: An analysis of 32 rivers in southwestern China

Can climate variability information constrain a hydrological model for an ungauged Costa Rican catchment?

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