Prediction Models for Elevated Cardiac Biomarkers from Previous Risk Factors and During the COVID-19 Pandemic in Residents of Trujillo City, Peru

Abstract

Cardiac troponin serum concentration is a marker of myocardial injury, but NT-pro BNP is a marker of myocardial insufficiency. The purpose of this study was to determine binary logistic regression models to verify the possible association of cardiovascular risk indicators, pre-pandemic history, the number of times participants were infected with SARS-CoV-2, and vaccination against these biomarkers. A total of 281 residents of Trujillo city (Peru) participated between September and December 2023. We found a high prevalence of abdominal obesity of 55.2%; glycemia > 100 m/dL in 53%; hypercholesterolemia in 49.8%; low HDL in 71.9%; and LDL > 100 mg/dL in 78.6%. A total of 97.5% were vaccinated against COVID-19, and 92.2% had three or more doses. Also, 2.5% had cTnI > 0.05 ng/mL, and 3.3% had NT-proBNP > 125 pg/mL. The number of COVID-19 infections versus cTnI > 0.05 ng/mL presented an OR = 3.513 (p = 0.003), while for NT-proBNP > 125 pg/mL, the number of comorbidities presented an OR = 2.185 (p = 0.025) and LDL an OR = 0.209 (p = 0.025). A regression model was obtained in which there is an association between a higher number of COVID-19 infections and elevated cTnI values and a model implying an association of the number of comorbidities and LDL with the NT-proBNP level in a direct and inverse manner, respectively. Both models contribute to the prevention of cardiac damage.