Predictive Analysis of Settlement Risk in Tunnel Construction: A Bow‐Tie‐Bayesian Network Approach

Abstract

A hybrid method consisting of bow-tie-Bayesian network (BT-BN) analysis and fuzzy theory is proposed in this research, in order to support predictive analysis of settlement risk during shield tunnel excavation. We verified the method by running a probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) for a tunnel section in the Wuhan metro system. Firstly, we defined the “normal excavation phase” based on the fuzzy statistical test theory. We eliminated the noise records in the tunnel construction log and extracted the occurrence probability of facility failures from the denoised database. We then obtained the occurrence probability of environmental failures, operational errors, and multiple failures via aggregation of weighted expert opinions. The expert opinions were collected in the form of fuzzy numbers, including triangular numbers and trapezoidal numbers. Afterwards, we performed the BT-BN analysis. We mapped the bow-tie analysis to the Bayesian network and built a causal network PSA model consisting of 16 nodes. Causes of the excessive surface settlement and the resulting surface collapse were determined by bow-tie analysis. The key nodes of accidents were determined by introducing three key measures into the Bayesian inference. Finally, we described the safety measures for the key nodes based on the PSA results. These safety measures were capable of reducing the failure occurrence probability (in one year) of excessive surface settlement by 66%, thus lowering the accident probability caused by excessive surface settlement.

Analysis of the Characteristics of Fatal Accidents in the Construction Industry in China Based on Statistical Data

“…Fourth, to determine the basic events in construction accidents, fault tree analysis could be performed [ 38 ]. Fifth, for the key basic event identified, the bow-tie model could be adopted to reduce the risk of construction accidents by implementing corresponding safety measures [ 51 ].…”

Risk analysis in underground tunnel construction with tunnel boring machines using the Best–Worst method and data envelopment analysis

“…Yazdani-Chamzini [ 12 ] designed a risk assessment-based fuzzy inference system to prioritize the risks of tunneling construction. Liu et al [ 13 ] computed the occurrence probabilities of tunnel construction risks using the hybrid bow-tie method-based Bayesian network. Chung et al [ 14 ] presented a shield TBM risk analysis model (STRAM) to analyze risks of geology, design, and construction management.…”

AHP‐FSE‐Based Risk Assessment and Mitigation for Slurry Balancing Shield Tunnel Construction

“…Meanwhile, he proposed a causal network matrix model suitable for tunnel construction safety risk analysis. In order to predict settlement risk during shield excavation reference [ 46 ], we proposed a fuzzy hybrid method for coupling Bayesian network and bow-tie model. By integrating weighted expert opinions, probabilities of environmental faults, operation errors, and other faults are obtained, and settlement risk values evaluated systematically from multiple aspects.…”