Predictive Factors for the Formation of Viable Embryos in Subfertile Patients with Diminished Ovarian Reserve: A Clinical Prediction Study

Abstract

This study aims to construct and validate a nomogram for predicting blastocyst formation in patients with diminished ovarian reserve (DOR) during in vitro fertilization (IVF) procedures. A retrospective analysis was conducted on 445 DOR patients who underwent in vitro fertilization (IVF)/intracytoplasmic sperm injection (ICSI) at the Reproductive Center of Yulin Maternal and Child Health Hospital from January 2019 to January 2023. A total of 1016 embryos were cultured for blastocyst formation, of which 487 were usable blastocysts and 529 did not form usable blastocysts. The embryos were randomly divided into a training set (711 embryos) and a validation set (305 embryos). Relevant factors were initially identified through univariate logistic regression analysis based on the training set, followed by multivariate logistic regression analysis to establish a nomogram model. The prediction model was then calibrated and validated. Multivariate stepwise forward logistic regression analysis showed that female age, normal fertilization status, embryo grade on D2, and embryo grade on D3 were independent predictors of blastocyst formation in DOR patients. The Hosmer–Lemeshow test indicated no statistical difference between the predicted probabilities of blastocyst formation and actual blastocyst formation (P > 0.05). These results suggest that female age, normal fertilization status, embryo grade on D2, and embryo grade on D3 are independent predictors of blastocyst formation in DOR patients. The clinical prediction nomogram constructed from these factors has good predictive value and clinical utility and can provide a basis for clinical prognosis, intervention, and the formulation of individualized medical plans.