Predictive modelling and analysis of the level of socio-economic tension in regional systems for sustainable territories renovation

Abstract

A conceptual scheme of a monitoring mechanism for early diagnosis of crisis socio-economic situations in regions and the choice of preventive measures aimed at reducing the level of socio-economic tension (SET) in regional systems operating under the influence of “shocks” is proposed. Implementation of the modules of the proposed mechanism for these regions of Ukraine was carried out, analysis and predictive modelling of the level of socio-economic tension in the regional systems of Ukraine was carried out using such machine learning methods as cluster analysis, taxonomy, reduction methods, classification methods with training, regression analysis on panel data, vector autoregressive models and error correction models. The results obtained made it possible to single out regions with different types of development. An analysis of the regions by the level of economic tension showed that 79% of the regions of Ukraine belong to regions with a high level of economic tension. The share of regions (58%), which are characterized by crisis development, remains high. Inertial and alternative scenarios for the socio-economic development of the region have been formed, and the best scenarios have been identified to reduce the level of SET. The proposed management mechanisms are universal and can be used for adapting regional strategies.