Predictive Scenarios of LULC Changes Supporting Public Policies: The Case of Chapecó River Ecological Corridor, Santa Catarina/Brazil

Abstract

The studies of spatial-temporal land use and land cover (LULC) change patterns, supported by future scenarios and simulation methods based on the assumption of natural socio-economic and territorial driving forces, allow us to go beyond an accurate diagnosis of the dynamics that have occurred so far, providing a picture of possible alternative futures, and are fundamental in assisting with the planning and policy-making in the territory. In this paper, we use LULC maps and explanatory variables aggregated in five dimensions (physical/natural, economic, sociocultural, technological, and demographic) to identify which are the main drinving forces in the evolution process and the simulation of LULC dynamics for 2036, using as a case study the Chapecó River ecological corridor (Chapecó EC) area. The Chapecó EC was created by the state government in 2010 with the goal of combining nature conservation with local and regional development. In this region, in the last two decades, the loss of areas of natural grassland and forest was on average five times higher than the average recorded in the state. Based on scenario-building methods using artificial neural networks, six predictive scenarios were elaborated, based on three socioeconomic scenarios (current conditions, growth, and socioeconomic recession) and two territorial intervention options (actions). This includes an action based on maintaining the current LULC, and another action of a conservationist nature with the recovery of forest and natural grassland areas to the proportions of areas found in 1990. The results indicate that if the current LULC is maintained, forest, pasture and agriculture areas tend to increase, while silviculture and natural grassland areas decrease, driven by economic and physical/natural driving forces. If there is a conservationist action, natural grassland and pasture areas tend to increase and silviculture and agriculture tend to lose area due to economic, technological, and physical/natural driving forces. These trends have revealed that the natural grassland preservation/restoration, the encouragement of conservationist agricultural practices combined with economic strategies, and the technological development of the rural sector seem to form the basis of economic development combined with biodiversity conservation.

A Multi-Objective Scenario Study of County Land Use in Loess Hilly Areas: Taking Lintao County as an Example

“…A study in Owyhee County, Idaho, USA, also found that conservation policies improved ecosystem services [62]. Additionally, compared with other studies [57,58,63], through finer land use classifications, this study can identify the multi-objective conflict problem of land use restructuring at the county scale. In the land use status quo change and scenario simulation, a conflict between urban land and rural settlement areas in the county is found, and the reduction in construction land is still dominated by rural settlement areas.…”

“…In previous studies, it has been acknowledged that pursuing a singular development approach is not feasible. Various perspectives have been put forward, including advocating for the balanced development of water resources and agriculture [57], balancing development with environmental preservation [58,59], promoting sustainable urban growth [60], and endorsing the concept of a self-sustaining economy [61]. Nonetheless, few studies have integrated multiple objectives comprehensively and conducted simulation research accordingly.…”

Cloud-based application for generate spatial and statistical data about environmental fragility and land cover

“…The focus of new policies for environmental recovery should be based on territorial planning rather than legal or socioeconomic mechanisms 22 . New policies should also consider all natural LULC classes as environmentally fragile and important to maintenance and recovery, not only forest formations 23 .…”